Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh Predictions and Odds for UFC Mexico on 02/28/2026

• Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh: A UFC Showdown
• Event: UFC Mexico
• Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City
• Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026

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Brandon Moreno is set to face Lone’er Kavanagh at UFC Mexico on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The preliminary odds feature Moreno at -225 and Kavanagh at +190.

Known as “The Assassin Baby,” Brandon Moreno boasts a professional record of 23 wins, 9 losses, and 2 draws. The 32-year-old fighter weighs in at 125 lbs, stands 5′ 7″, and has a reach of 70 inches. Opposing him is Lone’er Kavanagh, who stands at 5′ 6″, also fights at 125 lbs, and holds an impressive record of 9 wins and 1 loss. At just 26 years old, Kavanagh features a reach of 67 inches. Statistically, Moreno lands an average of 3.89 significant strikes per minute, while Kavanagh’s output is slightly higher at 4.29 significant strikes per minute. Moreno’s striking accuracy is 44%, whereas Kavanagh is more precise at 49%. Defensively, Moreno permits 3.62 significant strikes against him per minute, and Kavanagh allows 3.69; Moreno defends against 60% of significant strikes, while Kavanagh’s defense rate is 58%.

In terms of grappling, Brandon Moreno has a takedown rate of 1.47 per 15 minutes, succeeding with 44% of his attempts and defending against 64% of opponent takedowns. In contrast, Kavanagh manages to secure a takedown 50% of the time and stops 88% of incoming takedown attempts. When it comes to submissions, Moreno averages 0.4 submissions per 3 rounds, whereas Kavanagh attempts 0.6 per 15 minutes.

In his most recent match, Brandon Moreno faced Tatsuro Taira, suffering a loss by knockout in the second round. Taira successfully landed 45 out of 65 total strikes, while Moreno was able to land just 9 of 17 total strikes. Taira’s accuracy was 58%, landing 28 out of 48 significant strikes aimed at Moreno’s head, while Moreno landed 52% of his significant strikes overall.

On the flip side, Lone’er Kavanagh’s last fight was against Charles Johnson, where he also fell short, losing by knockout in the second round. Johnson achieved an impressive 84% striking accuracy at distance, while Kavanagh fared slightly better in that category, landing 89% of his distance strikes. Throughout the fight, Kavanagh landed 59 significant strikes out of 120 attempts, with a focus on head strikes that accounted for 32 of his successful connections.

Key Fights to Watch

One notable matchup to anticipate is Marlon Vera facing David Martinez. Vera enters the Octagon with a record of 23-11-1, weighing 135 lbs and standing 5′ 8″, possessing a reach of 70 inches. Martinez, at 5′ 5″ and also weighing 135 lbs, holds a record of 13-1-0, with a reach of 67 inches. In takedown stats, Vera secures a takedown 0.49 times per 3 rounds, while Martinez manages 0.80 per 3 rounds. Striking-wise, Vera averages 4.25 strikes per minute with a 48% accuracy rate, compared to Martinez’s 4.85 strikes per minute and 47% accuracy.

Fans should also keep an eye on the clash between King Green and Daniel Zellhuber. Zellhuber, with a record of 15-3-0, weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 6′ 1″, exhibiting a reach of 77 inches. Green stands 5′ 10″ and also weighs 155 lbs, with a record of 33-17-1 (1 NC). In grappling terms, Zellhuber achieves an impressive 94% takedown defense and completes takedowns at a rate of 25%, while Green secures a takedown 40% of the time with a 72% takedown defense. In terms of striking, Zellhuber lands 5.83 strikes per minute, while Green connects at an impressive 6.30.

Who will emerge victorious in this thrilling UFC match-up?

Prediction: Bet on Brandon Moreno (-225)