- Matchup: Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans
- Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
- Broadcast: CBS
- Betting Odds: Michigan State favored by 4 points
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The NCAA Tournament’s second round will see the Michigan State Spartans (25-7) clash with the Louisville Cardinals (23-10) at KeyBank Center. Oddsmakers have set the Spartans as 4-point favorites, with the total points line at 151.
In their last outing, Louisville defeated South Florida with an 83-79 scoreline. The Cardinals recorded 17 personal fouls against South Florida’s 21. From beyond the arc, they made 5 of 33 attempts. South Florida converted 14 of 16 free throw attempts, achieving an impressive 87.5% from the line. They totaled 36 rebounds (17 offensive and 19 defensive) but did not register any blocks. On the offensive end, they dished out 14 assists and achieved 15 steals. Defensively, Louisville allowed opponents to shoot 39.0% from the floor with 30 successes from 77 tries. They recorded 17 assists and forced 9 turnovers while adding 5 steals to their tally. The Cardinals secured 38 total rebounds, including 11 on the offensive glass. At the free-throw line, they completed 14 of 25 attempts, leading to a 56.0% conversion rate. In contrast, they finished the game with a field goal shooting percentage of 53.8% (28 of 52) and sank 13 out of 25 three-pointers.
Isaac McKneely stood out in the last game, shooting 72.7% from the field, contributing 23 points on 8 of 11 shooting, along with 2 assists and 3 rebounds in 28 minutes of play.
Louisville enters this matchup with a season record of 23-10. They average 11.6 turnovers per game and commit 18.4 personal fouls. The Cardinals also average 38.5 rebounds per game while accumulating 564 assists this year, ranking them 27th nationally. From three-point range, they’re shooting 35.7% (380 of 1065) and are hitting 76.9% from the free-throw line. They average 84.8 points per game, placing them 20th in Division 1, while shooting 47.0% from the field.
Defensively, Louisville averages 11.8 forced turnovers per game and commits 17.7 fouls. They allow opponents to shoot 32.7% from beyond the arc and rank 132nd in points allowed per game (72.2). Their defensive performance includes a shooting percentage against of 42.4% (832 of 1,964) and an average of 33.1 rebounds per game. They also rank 98th in collegiate basketball, allowing 402 assists on the season.
Last game, the Michigan State Spartans secured a decisive 92-67 victory against North Dakota State. They recorded 31 defensive rebounds and 3 offensive boards for a total of 34. The Spartans turned over the ball 12 times while achieving 5 steals. North Dakota State committed 17 fouls, leading to 18 free throw attempts for Michigan State, who converted 16 of them (88.9%). From three-point range, the Spartans hit 50.0%, making 10 of their 20 attempts. Overall, they shot 33 of 56 from the field, resulting in a 58.9% shooting rate. Defensively, they allowed North Dakota State to shoot 25 of 57 (43.9%) from the floor and 6 of 25 (24.0%) from distance, while granting 11 of 17 free throw attempts (64.7%). The Spartans gave up a total of 19 rebounds (1 offensive) to North Dakota State.
Carson Cooper contributed significantly for the Spartans, recording 20 points with a shooting percentage of 77.8% (7 of 9). Additionally, he pulled down 10 rebounds and provided 3 assists in his 30 minutes on the court.
This season, Michigan State holds a record of 25-7. Offensively, they are shooting 47.1%, which ranks 66th in college basketball. To date, they have scored 2,526 points (averaging 78.9 per game) and secured 39.8 rebounds per contest. The Spartans assist their teammates 18.5 times per game, ranking 6th in the nation, while averaging 11.5 turnovers. They commit 16.3 fouls per game and shoot 76.3% from the charity stripe.
The Spartans’ defense ranks 43rd in points allowed per game (68.4). They force 9.9 turnovers per game and restrict opponents to a 41.0% field goal percentage (36th in college). Opponents make 32.9% of their three-point attempts against them (275 of 836), and teams are hitting 75.1% of their free throws. The Spartans allow an average of 13.2 assists and 28.3 rebounds per game, ranking 166th and 1st in Division 1, respectively.
Who will take home the victory tonight against the spread?
Prediction: Take Michigan State (-4)
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