With the NFL Kickoff Game between the Dallas Cowboys and the reigning Super Bowl champions just over three weeks away, anticipation is building. I’m backing the Eagles this season—more insights on Philly coming soon.
Even though there are numerous innovative betting options available before the season kicks off, the over/under win totals continue to be the go-to choice for fans looking to maximize profits while extending their funds into the new year.
In this article, I’ll unveil my top picks for NFL win totals. Notably, all my selections favor the overs. This wasn’t by design; I recognize that betting unders is often a wiser strategy, while overs can be enticingly deceptive.
I had to prioritize value. The betting whales have already made their moves, and I can’t endorse a win total of 17 regular-season games at odds of (-200).
Several intriguing situations stand out, including a possible resurgence from Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, who narrowly missed the playoffs despite suffering only one loss by more than a single score against the eventual Super Bowl champions.
Can Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions sustain their regular season success without their former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson? We will also examine the enhanced Los Angeles Chargers, now in their second year under head coach John Harbaugh—a figure whose reputation suggests more experience than he actually has.
Let’s dive in!
Doc’s Sports provides expert NFL picks for every matchup available on our NFL predictions page.
Top NFL Win Total Picks
Cincinnati Bengals Over 9.5 Wins: -125
The Bengals were just a few poor officiating decisions and some late-game defensive errors away from playoff contention. Despite a typical slow start and Joe Burrow’s early-season rehabilitation, they outscored opponents by nearly two points per game and ended the season at 9-8.
They need to secure just one additional win to hit the over. The key issue is edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who has been a leading sack producer over the past two seasons and is currently in a contract standoff.
Recent reports suggest he might be traded, which could impact our over bet. However, Burrow is fiercely competitive and will likely lobby the front office to secure more than just draft picks. Their offense is Super Bowl-caliber, and they aren’t far from being a serious contender.
Chicago Bears Over 8.5 Wins: +125
I’m enthusiastically backing the Chicago Bears here. They only need to notch 9 wins, and the odds are at (+125)! This low total combined with favorable odds stems from their competitive division and last season’s disappointing 5-win outcome.
Although the strength of schedule poses challenges, Caleb Williams might still be the highest-ceiling quarterback from his draft class. With Pete Carroll’s return, I’m confident the Bears will finish the season above .500.
Detroit Lions Over 10.5 Wins: +120
Staying within the NFC North, let’s discuss the Detroit Lions. Despite losing their offensive coordinator, they retain most of their key offensive players. Last season, their defense faced more injuries than any other team, yet they still managed to secure 15 victories!
Los Angeles Chargers Over 9.5 Wins: -120
This is our only bet with juice, and it stands at just (-120). The Chargers faced a shortage of wide receiver depth in 2024. Now, with the #1 scoring defense and an improved offense that can stretch the field, they’re primed for success.
Keep an eye on the Chargers in 2025. Justin Herbert remains one of the league’s most underrated quarterbacks and players overall.
New York Giants Over 5.5 Wins: +110
I’m aware that the New York Giants had a rough 2024, and both the head coach and GM might be on thin ice if the season doesn’t start well. However, they showcased an impressive pass rush, despite frequently trailing in games.
Imagine if they could take leads into the second half; it would allow their edge rushers to truly unleash their potential. With a couple of veteran quarterbacks, let’s hope Brian Daboll can effectively manage the egos, especially with the notoriously challenging Russell Wilson. I believe they can secure at least six wins.
Philadelphia Eagles Over 11.5 Wins: +110
Lastly, the Philadelphia Eagles made last season look effortless, showing improvement week after week since mid-season. We all witnessed their Super Bowl performance.
Their offensive line is exceptional, and they have the ideal quarterback for their system. Saquon Barkley rushed for 2,000 yards last year.
The young and formidable secondary, featuring standout Cooper DeJean, is a force. While this may not be the most groundbreaking prediction, I’m betting on the defending champions to exceed 12 wins at (+110).
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