- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
- Scheduled For: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
- Betting Odds: Minnesota Lynx +3.5
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On Tuesday, the Phoenix Mercury (1-1) host the Minnesota Lynx (0-1) at the Mortgage Matchup Center. The Mercury are favored by 3.5 points, with the total over/under set at 169.5.
In their most recent outing, the Minnesota Lynx narrowly lost to the Atlanta Dream, finishing 91-90. Minnesota recorded a field goal percentage of 50.0% (35 out of 70) and made 5 out of 18 three-pointers. From the charity stripe, they converted 15 of 22 attempts for 68.2%. The Lynx secured 25 rebounds, including 7 offensive boards, and dished out 20 assists while forcing Atlanta into 20 turnovers and achieving 10 steals. On the defensive side, Minnesota allowed Atlanta a shooting percentage of 42.5%, with the Dream hitting 31 of their 73 shots. Atlanta also managed 19 assists and logged 9 steals while securing 46 total rebounds (19 offensive, 27 defensive) and blocking 6 shots. They shot 73.3% from the free throw line, connecting on 22 out of 30 attempts, and made 7 out of 29 from beyond the arc.
Olivia Miles was a standout for the Lynx, scoring 21 points on 6 of 14 shooting in 34 minutes. She also grabbed 3 rebounds and delivered 8 assists.
The Lynx enter the game with a record of 0-1 this season. They are averaging 90.0 points per game (7th in the league) with a field goal percentage of 50.0%. From three-point range, Minnesota is shooting 27.8% (5 of 18) and 68.2% from the free throw line. The team averages 25.0 rebounds per game while ranking 12th in assists with 20 per contest. They commit an average of 15.0 turnovers and 24.0 personal fouls every game. Defensively, the Lynx force 20.0 turnovers and draw 18.0 fouls. They rank 4th in the league in assists allowed, conceding 22 assists this season. Opponents shoot 42.5% from the field against them (20 of 18) and they allow an average of 46.0 rebounds per game. They are also giving up 24.1% from three-point range, placing them 10th for points allowed per game (91.0).
In their previous match, the Phoenix Mercury suffered a 95-79 defeat against the Golden State Valkyries. They managed 20 defensive rebounds and 4 offensive boards, totaling 24 for the game. The Mercury turned the ball over 17 times and recorded 2 steals. The Valkyries committed 21 fouls, leading to 19 free-throw attempts for Phoenix, who converted 16 for an 84.2% success rate. Further, the Mercury connected on 11 of 22 three-point attempts (50.0%). Overall, they shot 26 of 54 from the field for a shooting percentage of 48.1%. Defensively, they allowed the Valkyries to shoot 49.3% (33 of 67) while permitting them to shoot 39.4% from three-point range (13 of 33) and finish 88.9% from the free throw line (16 of 18). Phoenix allowed Golden State to gather 30 total rebounds (6 offensive).
Alyssa Thomas excelled in the game for Phoenix, going 5 of 9 from the field (55.6%), grabbing 9 rebounds, and contributing 19 points in 38 minutes along with 11 assists.
The Mercury are currently 1-1 on the season. Offensively, they boast a shooting percentage of 48.9%, ranking 6th in the league. Phoenix has accrued 178 points this season, averaging 89.0 per game, while collecting 30.5 rebounds per contest. They average 21.5 assists (8th in the WNBA) and have a turnover rate of 12.0 per game. The team commits an average of 15.5 fouls and shoots an impressive 82.4% from the charity stripe. Defensively, Phoenix ranks 3rd in points per game allowed, sitting at 80.5. They concede 22.0 assists and 32.5 rebounds per game, placing them 11th and 7th, respectively. Opponents shoot 32.7% from three-point land (17 of 52), and free throws see a 76.9% success rate against them. Additionally, they force an average of 13.0 turnovers and allow opponents to shoot 44.9% from the field (9th in the league).
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s WNBA matchup against the spread?
Prediction: Back Phoenix (-3.5)
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