Matchup: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
Date: Thursday, August 28, 2025
Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
Betting Lines: Miami (+126) New York (-152)
This Thursday at Citi Field, the New York Mets (71-61) will face off against the Miami Marlins (62-70). The current moneyline places Miami at +126 while New York is at -152, with an over/under set at 8.5. Expected to pitch are Adam Mazur for Miami and Clay Holmes for New York.
The Miami Marlins have achieved 217 doubles this season and hit 128 home runs. Their slugging percentage stands at .395, with 1,035 strikeouts against 396 walks. As a team, they average 4.3 runs per game, ranking 19th in the league. They have compiled 541 RBIs and 1,126 hits, holding a batting average of .250 alongside an OBP of .314.
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The Marlins pitch with a K/BB ratio of 2.55 and maintain a team WHIP of 1.29. This season, they’ve allowed 144 home runs and 638 runs, ranking 24th in the league. Miami’s pitching has resulted in 1,108 hits (8.5 per 9 innings) and 589 earned runs, resulting in a team ERA of 4.52 (24th in MLB) and 1,039 strikeouts. Their walk rate stands at 407, contributing to a FIP of 4.15 for the season.
This season, Marlins pitchers have faced runners on base 102 times and appeared in high leverage situations 145 times. The relief pitchers have secured 71 holds this year (18th in MLB) and have a save rate of 62.7% from 123 opportunities, tallying 32 saves while missing 19 of 51 save chances. Over the season, they have inherited 150 base runners, with 32.7% scoring. The Marlins have used 407 relievers throughout the year.
The Los Angeles Dodgers recorded 3,517 putouts, 1,133 assists, and 65 errors so far. Their fielding percentage is .986, ranking 17th in baseball, along with 91 double plays. The Marlins convert 70.0% of balls in play into outs over 10,551 innings, placing them 14th in the majors.
Adam Mazur has pitched for 38 innings, striking out 27 batters in his professional career. Currently, he holds an earned run average of 7.50 (32 ER allowed) and a WHIP of 1.823, allowing 45 hits (10.5 hits per 9 innings) while walking 25. Mazur has a career record of 1-4 and a FIP of 7.39 against 185 opposing hitters in the majors.
The Mets have a team slugging percentage of .424 and score an average of 4.64 runs per game (10th in MLB). They have hit 216 doubles, received 464 walks, and scored 612 runs this season. New York has achieved 176 home runs and 597 RBIs, striking out 1,058 times (21st in MLB) and accumulating 1,098 hits. Their OBP is .326 and batting average is .248 this season.
As a pitching staff, the Mets have a team WHIP of 1.312 and a FIP of 3.88. They maintain a K/BB ratio of 8.70 (1,134 strikeouts vs 469 walks) and rank 11th in total hits allowed with 1,065. They have surrendered 119 home runs, allowing 4.27 runs per 9 innings (12th in MLB), with a total of 554 runs against a 3.83 ERA (497 earned runs allowed).
The Mets’ relievers have inherited 34.4% of 209 inherited runners. They have appeared 161 times in high leverage situations and 141 times with runners on base. In 143 save opportunities, New York’s relievers have recorded 84 holds and 23 blown saves, boasting a 61.0% save rate this season. They’ve called on 433 relievers to the mound in total, securing 36 saves from 59 chances.
Throughout their 10,521 innings of play, the Mets have demonstrated a defensive efficiency of 69.4% (20th in MLB). They have turned 97 double plays and possess a fielding percentage of .987 (9th in MLB), with 1,190 assists, 60 errors, and 3,507 putouts this season.
Clay Holmes, with a career record of 35-28, holds a 3.68 ERA while allowing 7.8 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 2.25, having faced 2,045 hitters in MLB. Holmes has allowed a total of 194 earned runs, recording a WHIP of 1.307 and a FIP of 3.6. Over his career, he has surrendered 412 hits while striking out 469 over 474 innings pitched.
Who will secure the victory in tonight’s MLB match against the spread or the moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Selection: Choose Miami (+126)
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