Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Outlook, 7/9/2026 WNBA Insights, Picks, and Odds

Home » Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Outlook, 7/9/2026 WNBA Insights, Picks, and Odds

 

  • Matchup: Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury
  • Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
  • Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
  • Broadcast: Prime Video
  • Betting Line: Indiana (-5.5)

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The Indiana Fever (12-8) travel to the Mortgage Matchup Center for a showdown against the Phoenix Mercury (8-14). According to the betting lines, Indiana is favored by 5.5 points. The over/under is set at 184.5.

In their previous clash, the Indiana Fever triumphed over the Las Vegas Aces with a score of 84-68. Indiana achieved a field goal percentage of 42.9%, completing 30 out of 70 shots, including 9 of 23 from beyond the arc. At the charity stripe, the Fever converted 15 of their 20 attempts, yielding a 75.0% performance. On the rebounding front, they amassed 39 boards, with 13 on the offensive side. Additionally, Indiana facilitated 18 assists, forced 13 turnovers from their opponents, and registered 5 steals. Defensively, Indiana held Las Vegas to a 40.0% shooting rate, allowing 22 of 55 attempts. The Aces managed to distribute 6 assists and achieved 5 steals, while collecting 30 rebounds (6 offensive, 24 defensive). Their free-throw efficiency was notable at 80.0%, making 20 of 25 attempts. However, they struggled with their 3-point shooting, hitting only 4 of 19 attempts.

wnba picks Kelsey Mitchell Indiana Fever predictions best bet odds

Kelsey Mitchell significantly impacted the game, scoring 27 points from 7 of 18 shooting, while also contributing 2 rebounds and 3 assists in her 33 minutes of play.

As for the season, Indiana Fever holds a record of 12-8. The Fever excel in long-range shooting, connecting on 36.3% (195 of 537) of their shots from three-point territory, and their free-throw percentage stands at an impressive 82.0%. They average 93.5 points per game, leading the league, with a shooting efficiency of 46.9% from the field. On the flip side, they commit 14.8 turnovers and 24.0 fouls per game. As a team, Indiana grabs 34.5 rebounds per game and has accumulated 420 assists this season, ranking 8th in the league for passing. Defensively, they force 12.4 turnovers while managing 23.5 fouls per contest. The Fever’s defense permits a field goal percentage of 45.5% (248 of 469) and allows an average of 30.4 rebounds per game, ranking first in allowing assists to opponents with a total of 385 on the season. They restrict 3-point shooting to 32.2% and rank 12th for points allowed per game at 88.9.

In their latest outing, the Phoenix Mercury fell short against the Chicago Sky, finishing 77-66. They secured 31 total rebounds, distributed as 25 defensive and 6 offensive. Despite turning the ball over 20 times, they did register 11 steals. The Sky committed 23 fouls, giving the Mercury the opportunity for 24 free-throw attempts, of which they converted 19 for a 79.2% success rate. On three-point attempts, Phoenix managed just 7 of 24 (29.2%). The Mercury shot 20-for-54 from the field, yielding a 37.0% shooting percentage. Defensively, they allowed the Sky to score on 41.9% of their attempts, allowing 26 out of 62 shots. Chicago was 40.7% from three-point range, hitting 11 of 27 attempts, and converting 14 of 20 attempts from the free-throw line (70.0%). Overall, Phoenix’s rebounding allowed the Sky to gather 35 boards.

Kahleah Copper stood out for the Mercury in this match, generating 25 points with a shooting percentage of 47.4% from 9 of 19 attempts, while also securing 4 rebounds and dishing out 1 assist in 34 minutes of play.

The Phoenix Mercury currently holds a record of 8-14 this season. They commit 18.4 fouls per game and boast a free-throw percentage of 78.9%. Distributing assists at a rate of 19.0 per game (12th in the WNBA), they average 13.1 turnovers. So far this season, Phoenix has netted 1,835 points, averaging 83.4 points per contest, with an average of 32.2 rebounds. Offensively, the Mercury are shooting 43.4% from the floor, ranking 10th in the league. Defensively, they rank 8th in points allowed per game at 85.5, allowing 20.7 assists and 33.4 rebounds per game, standing at 12th and 8th respectively in the WNBA. Opponents shoot 36.9% on three-point attempts (218 of 591), and they hit 78.8% of their free-throw attempts. On average, Phoenix forces 13.3 turnovers and their opponents have shot 45.9% from the field, ranking 10th in basketball.

Who will prevail in today’s WNBA matchup?

Prediction: Bet on Phoenix (+5.5)

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Pick: Phoenix Mercury (+5.5)
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