- Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: Reds.TV
- Odds/Point Spread: Chicago (-150) Cincinnati (+125)
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The Cincinnati Reds (42-50) are set to face off against the Chicago Cubs (52-41) at the Great American Ball Park this Saturday. The betting odds for this matchup feature Chicago at -150, while Cincinnati stands at +125. The run total is established at 9, with Javier Assad and Nick Lodolo taking the mound as starting pitchers.
This season, the Chicago Cubs have been averaging 5.1 runs per game, positioning them 5th in the league overall. They have tallied a total of 471 runs with a team on-base percentage of .337. The Cubs have recorded 147 doubles and 118 home runs, along with 439 runs batted in and 776 hits, yielding a batting average of .244. With a slugging percentage of .412, the team has struck out 778 times while walking 406 times.
The Cubs maintain a K/BB ratio of 2.49 with a cumulative WHIP of 1.27 among their pitching staff. They have allowed 142 home runs and 421 total runs (17th in the league). The Chicago pitchers have given up 761 base hits (8.3 per 9 innings) and 400 earned runs, resulting in a team ERA of 4.35 (20th in the league), while striking out 726 batters. This season, the pitching staff has issued 291 walks, with a collective FIP of 4.78.
Chicago has used 305 relief pitchers throughout the season, inheriting 139 base runners, of which 33.1% have crossed the plate. The bullpen has recorded 33 holds (29th in the league) and has entered games with runners on base 96 times, including 89 high-leverage appearances. They have managed 18 saves this season but missed 16 of their 34 save opportunities. The Cubs’ bullpen boasts a save percentage of 52.9% across 73 save situations.
On defense, the Cubs have converted 71.9% of balls in play into outs over 7,446 innings, ranking 2nd in MLB. They have achieved 2,482 putouts, 858 assists, and 37 errors, resulting in a fielding percentage of .989 which ranks 4th in MLB, along with 69 double plays.
Assad has pitched for 387 innings, accumulating 304 strikeouts in his career. He sports an ERA of 3.53 (152 earned runs allowed) and a career WHIP of 1.297. Over his career, he has permitted 351 hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and issued 151 walks. With a career record of 24-13, Assad has a FIP of 3.48 and has faced 1,630 opponents during his time in the majors.
As for the Cincinnati Reds, they hold a team on-base percentage of .309 and a batting average of .227 this season. They have struck out 876 times (3rd in MLB) and accumulated 698 base hits. The Reds have hit 113 home runs and driven in 365 runs, posting a slugging percentage of .389 and averaging 4.17 runs per game (23rd in the league). They have 145 doubles and have drawn 344 walks while scoring 384 runs.
The Reds’ pitching staff exhibits a WHIP of 1.447 and a FIP of 4.96. They rank 20th in MLB for total hits allowed with 772, having given up 442 runs this year with an ERA of 4.53 (412 earned runs). Their K/BB ratio stands at 8.10 (738 strikeouts against 413 walks). They have permitted 124 home runs and allow 4.86 runs per 9 innings (20th in the league).
With a save percentage of 55.3%, the Reds rank 25th in the league and have deployed 328 relief pitchers this season. Their bullpen has entered 112 high-pressure situations and 105 instances with runners on base. Out of 90 save opportunities, they have achieved 51 holds and recorded 17 blown saves. The Reds’ bullpen has successfully converted 21 of 38 save chances, inheriting 146 runners with a scoring rate of 24.7%.
Over 7,371 innings, the Reds boast a defensive efficiency of 70.5% (ranked 11th in baseball). They have completed 68 double plays, with a fielding percentage of .985 (18th in professional baseball), committing 50 errors and achieving 2,457 putouts thus far.
Lodolo (27-24 career record) has logged a 4.15 ERA while yielding 8.5 hits per 9 innings. With a K/BB ratio of 3.56, he has faced 1,999 opponents during his career. He has permitted 215 earned runs, holding a WHIP of 1.244 and a FIP of 4.1. Throughout his career, Lodolo has given up 439 hits while totaling 502 strikeouts over 466 innings pitched.
Who will secure the win in tonight’s MLB game against the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Go with Cincinnati (+125)
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