- Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
- Event Date: Monday, July 27, 2026
- Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
- Betting Odds: Atlanta (-145), New York (+125)
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The Atlanta Braves (61-42) are set to faceoff against the New York Mets (43-61) at Citi Field this coming Monday. The Braves are favored on the moneyline at -145, while the Mets sit at +125. The total runs for this matchup are set at 9, and starting pitchers will be Martin Perez and Zac Thornton.
The Atlanta Braves maintain a slugging percentage of .420 with 835 strikeouts and have drawn walks 310 times this season. They have accumulated 497 RBIs and 879 hits, reflecting a team batting average of .250. The Braves have recorded 164 doubles and hit 138 home runs, resulting in a total of 515 runs scored, while achieving an on-base percentage of .316. Averaging 5.0 runs per game places them 6th in the league.
The Braves have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.54 and a team WHIP of 1.24. Their pitching staff has given up 119 home runs and 408 runs total (6th in the league). The team has allowed 789 hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and 375 earned runs, with a season ERA of 3.69 (7th in the league), alongside 879 strikeouts. They have walked 346 batters and currently hold a FIP of 4.12 for the season.
This season, 330 relief pitchers have been utilized by the Braves. These relief pitchers have come in with 105 inherited runners, with 26.7% scoring. The bullpen has recorded 73 holds (3rd in MLB) and has faced 73 instances with players on base and 109 high-leverage situations. The Braves have achieved 31 saves but have failed to convert 13 out of 44 save opportunities, resulting in a save rate of 70.5% through 120 save situations.
Defensively, the Braves have converted 71.5% of balls in play into outs across 8,232 innings, ranking 4th in MLB. With a total of 2,744 putouts, 848 assists, and 46 errors, they have a fielding percentage of .987, placing them 11th in professional baseball with 83 double plays.
Martin Perez, holding a career record of 97-99, features a FIP of 4.30, having faced 7,419 batters. He has allowed 1,816 hits (9.5 hits per 9 innings) and issued 626 walks. His earned run average stands at 4.36 (with 832 earned runs) and a WHIP of 1.423 over 1,716 innings pitched, amassing 1,218 strikeouts throughout his career.
The Mets sport a slugging percentage of .383 and average 4.05 runs per game (27th in baseball). They have recorded 129 doubles, garnered 326 walks, and scored 421 runs. With 123 home runs this season, the Mets have 401 RBIs, but have struck out 872 times (14th in the league) and compiled 816 hits. Their on-base percentage is .303 and they maintain a batting average of .233 this season.
As a team, the Mets hold a WHIP of 1.309 and a FIP of 4.04. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 9.20 (943 strikeouts vs. 372 walks), ranking them 14th in total hits allowed with 839. The pitching staff has surrendered 115 home runs and allows 4.74 runs per 9 innings (19th in MLB). This season, the Mets have conceded 487 runs, with a team ERA of 4.23 (435 earned runs).
New York ranks 24th in MLB with a save rate of 56.7%, relying on 321 relief pitchers this year. Their relievers have faced 109 high-pressure situations and 103 innings with runners on base. They have experienced 69 save opportunities, achieving 39 holds and 13 blown saves. The Mets have amassed 17 saves from 30 opportunities, with an inherited scoring rate of 28.9% from 142 inherited base runners.
Defensives-wise, the Mets boast 58 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .981 (29th in MLB). They have 845 assists, 69 errors, and 2,777 putouts this season, achieving a defensive efficiency of 69.4% (21st in baseball) over 8,331 innings played.
Thornton has given up 14 hits in his career, achieving 17 strikeouts in just 23 innings. His career win-loss record stands at 1-1 with a 1.95 ERA, allowing 5.5 hits per 9 innings. He has permitted 5 earned runs, owning a WHIP of 0.866 and FIP of 1.9. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.83, having faced 87 batters thus far.
Which team will dominate in tonight’s MLB game—will it be against the spread or the moneyline?
Recommendation: Opt for Atlanta (-145)
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