Daniil Donchenko vs. Punahele Soriano Betting Insights, 09/05/2026 UFC Paris Odds

• Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano
• UFC Paris
• Accor Arena in Paris, France
• Saturday, September 5, 2026

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On Saturday, September 5, 2026, Daniil Donchenko will face off against Punahele Soriano in the Octagon during UFC Paris. The betting line positions Donchenko at -249 while Soriano is listed at +206.

Daniil Donchenko aims to secure a victory, bringing his impressive record of 15 wins and 2 losses (15-2-0) into the ring. At just 25 years old, he weighs in at 170 lbs and stands at 5′ 11″. As an orthodox fighter, Donchenko boasts a reach of 71 inches. His opponent, Punahele “Puna” Soriano, also stands at 5′ 11″ and weighs the same at 170 lbs. The 33-year-old southpaw is seeking to enhance his record of 13 wins and 4 losses (13-4-0) and has a reach of 72 inches. Analyzing significant strikes, Donchenko averages 8.07 landed per minute, while Soriano has a lower rate of 4.42. Donchenko connects successfully with 62% of his attempted significant strikes, compared to Soriano’s 53%. In terms of defense, Donchenko allows 2.80 significant strikes per minute, while Soriano takes in 3.31. Notably, Donchenko manages to defend against 70% of significant strikes aimed at him, whereas Soriano defends against 47%.

Regarding grappling tactics, Daniil Donchenko shows less proficiency in takedowns with an average of 0.58 attempts every 15 minutes. He converts 33% of his takedown attempts and successfully defends against 75% of his opponents’ tries. Conversely, Soriano completes 51% of his takedown attempts and stops 48% of those attempted against him. In terms of submissions, Donchenko appears to be more aggressive, attempting 0.7 submissions every three rounds, compared to Soriano’s 0.1 attempts per 15 minutes.

In his most recent Octagon appearance, Daniil Donchenko faced Theodor Berggren and claimed victory via a head punch in the second round. In that bout, Berggren landed 29 out of 71 total strikes he attempted. Donchenko performed significantly better, landing 73 out of 109 total strikes. Analyzing significant strikes, Berggren had a success rate of 35%, landing 23 of 64, while Donchenko boasted a 66% success rate, hitting 71 out of 107, including 16 out of 44 directed at the head. Interestingly, 86% of Berggren’s strikes landed from a distance, and 85% of Donchenko’s were also from range.

In his previous fight, Punahele Soriano faced Ramiz Brahimaj and secured a victory by unanimous decision in the third round. Brahimaj landed an impressive 92% of his significant strikes at a distance, whereas Soriano connected on 62% of significant strikes attempted from the same range. In total, Soriano hit 40 of 92 significant strikes, including 29 directed at the head. Brahimaj landed 38 of 67 significant strikes, with 16 aimed at the head. Soriano displayed dominance in total strikes as well, landing 66 of 123 while Brahimaj totaled 43 out of 73.

Other Exciting Fights on the Card

Another matchup to anticipate is the clash of Morgan Charriere against Felipe Lima. Charriere brings a record of 21 wins, 12 losses, and 1 draw (21-12-1) into this fight. The 30-year-old weighs 145 lbs and stands at 5′ 8″, utilizing an orthodox fighting style with a reach of 69 inches. Lima, on the other hand, is 5′ 6″, also weighs 145 lbs, and holds a record of 14 wins and 2 losses (14-2-0), with a reach of 68 inches. In grappling stats, Charriere averages 2.06 takedowns per 3 rounds, while Lima manages 2.18 takedowns per 15 minutes. When discussing striking, Charriere lands 4.02 strikes per minute at a 50% accuracy rate, while Lima achieves 45% accuracy with an average of 2.86 strikes landed per minute.

If thrill is what you seek, watch for the fight between Muhammad Naimov and Losene Keita. Keita is eager to improve his record of 16 wins and 2 losses (16-2-0). At 28 years old, he stands at 5′ 7″ and weighs 145 lbs, competing as an orthodox fighter with a reach of 72 inches. Naimov, at 5′ 9″, similarly weighs 145 lbs and holds a record of 13 wins and 4 losses (13-4-0). The 32-year-old’s reach is 70 inches. In grappling, Keita successfully defends 85% of takedown attempts and secures takedowns 15% of the time. Naimov finishes 30% of his takedown attempts and successfully defends against 68% of his opponents’ attempts. Striking stats show Keita absorbs 4.47 strikes per minute, delivering 3.47, while Naimov absorbs 3.35 and provides 2.51 strikes per minute.

Who will triumph in tonight’s UFC showdown against the spread?

Prediction: Back Daniil Donchenko (-249)