I trust everyone navigated a thrilling Week 1 without mishap. I had my sights on the Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at home on Sunday. It appeared we might push into overtime, but that wasn’t the case. Younghoe Koo stepped up in the final moments to attempt a tie against the Buccaneers. It was a manageable 44-yarder, but sadly, the kick veered wide right.
After struggling with nine missed kicks last season, his opportunity was limited. Head coach Raheem Morris has already revealed that a new kicker has been brought in to vie for the position. This loss stings for a Falcons squad that showed strong performance, especially on the defensive side.
On the other hand, the Minnesota Vikings displayed resilience, making a significant stand in the fourth quarter when chances emerged.
If those two bizarre game endings had flipped, would the Vikings remain favorites by more than a field goal?
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Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
The betting line initially opened at (-4.5) favoring the Vikings but quickly adjusted to its current figure. Atlanta’s injury report isn’t alarming for Week 2, as Drake London is anticipated to play despite a sprained shoulder.
The Vikings, however, are feeling the pinch, eagerly awaiting the return of starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw. Their defense is now without starting inside linebacker Blake Cashman, who sustained a concussion last week, along with backup running back and returner Ty Chandler.
At this moment, the Falcons being more than a field goal underdog is quite appealing. Let’s examine the total points and moneyline.
Point Total: 44.5
It opened at 45, but we’ve seen around ⅔ of the wagers and funds come in on the under. Many bettors are likely leaning towards unders this week considering it’s the first complete week of preparation. Week 1 gives coaches ample time to strategize.
Moneyline
Falcons: +160
Vikings: -190
The Atlanta Falcons are very much alive in this Sunday Night showcase featuring two emerging quarterbacks. They’ve earned this primetime opportunity over the Super Bowl rematch.
This reflects the league’s confidence in Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy. While it’s early to make definitive calls on either player, their starts have not been disappointing.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings Betting Analysis
I find this matchup exciting, especially with the young Falcons quarterback facing off against Minnesota’s defensive coordinator, Brian Flores. He is known for creating confusion for opposing offenses, particularly through aggressive blitzing.
However, it’s uncertain how effective this strategy will be against Penix Jr., who has quick mobility and is unafraid to pass to his star running back, Bijan Robinson.
Speaking of Robinson, his rushing total from last week was quite surprising, as he managed just 2 yards on 12 carries, leading to my next point.
Penix Jr. nearly reached 300 passing yards, while the Falcons struggled on the ground, accumulating only 48 yards on 22 carries.
If the Vikings fail to contain Robinson from penetrating deeper into their defense, they could face significant challenges with Cashman sidelined.
Not many are noting that this could be a letdown scenario for the Vikings. Following a dramatic and unexpected win over the Bears, they don’t have a short week, but the emotional weight remains.
I was a strong advocate for the Vikings last season after being one of the few supporters before the year began. However, now might be the time to step back, at least temporarily.
Switch the results from Week 1, and the point spread would likely fall within a field goal. Coupling the potential letdown factor with a favorable injury update points towards betting on the underdog.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings Betting Pick
Pick: Falcons (+3.5)
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