Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers Analysis, 9/13/2026 NFL Picks, Top Bets & Odds Week 1

Home » Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers Analysis, 9/13/2026 NFL Picks, Top Bets & Odds Week 1

  • Matchup: Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
  • Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
  • Broadcast: FOX
  • Betting Odds: Falcons +3.5
  • Total Points (Over/Under): 41.5

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Acrisure Stadium will host the clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7 last season) and the Atlanta Falcons (8-9 last year) this Sunday. The Falcons enter this contest as underdogs, with a spread of 3.5 points. The over/under is set at 41.5 points.

The Atlanta Falcons wrapped up their previous campaign with an 8-9 record. In their most recent game, they faced off against the New Orleans Saints and secured a narrow victory, finishing 19-17. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 18 of 32 passes for 180 yards and threw one touchdown, posting a quarterback rating of 69.8, alongside one interception. Bijan Robinson led the rushing strategy with 15 carries for 33 yards (averaging 2.2 yards per attempt). Receiver Drake London caught 4 passes for 78 yards, averaging 19.5 yards per catch. The Falcons attempted 25 rushes, totaling 49 yards for an average of 2.0 yards per carry. Overall, they executed 57 offensive plays, achieving 208 total yards. Defensively, Atlanta allowed 23 completions out of 35 attempts, conceding 232 yards with a completion percentage of 65.7%. On the ground, they permitted 108 yards from 26 carries (4.2 yards per rush).

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In terms of scoring, the Atlanta Falcons averaged 20.8 points per game last season while standing 8th in the league with 125.8 rushing yards per game. The team generated a total of 5,661 yards across the season. Atlanta registered 185 first downs but faced 108 penalties resulting in a loss of 819 yards. They also turned the ball over 18 times (8 interceptions and 10 fumbles). For offensive touchdowns, Atlanta achieved 19 through the air and 17 on the ground.

Defensively, the Falcons allowed 3,407 passing yards, ranking 13th overall in the league. They permitted 200.4 yards per game in passing with a completion rate of 62.6%. In total, they conceded 2,146 rushing yards over the course of 17 games, giving up 27 touchdowns via the pass and 12 on the ground. Their average of 326.6 yards allowed per contest ranked them 15th, while the defense gave up 4.6 yards per carry, leading to an average of 126.2 rushing yards allowed per game. The Falcons ranked 19th in the league in defensive performance, allowing 23.6 points per game.

The Pittsburgh Steelers concluded their season with a 10-7 record. In their latest outing, they suffered a defeat against the Houston Texans, finishing 30-6. Running back Jaylen Warren carried the ball 12 times for 43 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per rush for Pittsburgh. D.K. Metcalf emerged as the top receiver, hauling in 2 catches for 42 yards (21.0 yards per reception). Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finished the game with 146 passing yards, completing 17 of 33 attempts, yielding a quarterback rating of 50.8. He threw 1 interception, averaging just 4.4 yards per pass attempt. Defensively, Pittsburgh conceded 31 rush attempts, allowing 164 yards (5.3 yards per attempt). Their passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 65.6%, giving up 244 yards on 21 completions out of 32 attempts. The Steelers managed a total of 175 yards across 52 plays (3.4 yards per play), while rushing for 63 yards on 18 calls (averaging 3.5 yards per attempt).

Throughout the season, the Pittsburgh Steelers averaged 305.6 total yards per game, positioning them at 25th in the NFL. They recorded an average of 103.3 rushing yards per game, accumulating a total of 1,756 rushing yards. The offense favored 9 interceptions and 6 fumbles, while generating a total of 160 first downs. The Steelers were penalized 101 times, resulting in 803 yards lost, ranking them 23rd in terms of penalties. Their offense amassed 3,440 passing yards, averaging 202.4 passing yards per game, placing them 22nd in the league. When it came to scoring, the Steelers ranked 15th, with an average of 23.4 points per game.

The defense allowed 30 touchdowns through the air and presented an opposing quarterback rating of 243.9 yards per game, landing them at 29th in the league. On the ground, they allowed a total of 1,922 rushing yards (113.1 yards per game) and 10 rushing touchdowns last season. The defensive unit forced a total of 27 turnovers (12 caused fumbles and 15 interceptions). Overall, they allowed 387 points, ranking them 17th in the league with a points-per-game average of 22.8, which places them in the mid-tier of NFL defenses.

Who will prevail in this exciting matchup between the Falcons and the Steelers against the spread?

Prediction: Take the Falcons +3.5

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