Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki Analysis, 09/12/2026 Insights Noche UFC 4 Odds

• Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki
• Noche UFC 4
• Accor Arena, Paris, France
• Saturday, September 12, 2026

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On September 12, 2026, Tommy McMillen will go head-to-head with Marwan Rahiki at Noche UFC 4. Current odds show McMillen at -171 and Rahiki at +150.

Tommy “Gun” McMillen aims to solidify his undefeated record of 11-0-0. At 28 years old, he weighs 145 lbs and stands at 6’0″ with a reach of 74″. Marwan “Freaky” Rahiki, aged 24, is slightly shorter at 5’8″ and matches McMillen’s weight of 145 lbs. Rahiki boasts an unblemished record of 9-0-0 and has a reach of 72″. In their striking stats, McMillen averages 13.54 significant strikes per minute, while Rahiki lands 7.75. McMillen has a striking accuracy of 50%, and Rahiki slightly edges him with 52%. Defensively, McMillen absorbs 4.96 significant strikes per minute, whereas Rahiki takes 5.90, with McMillen successfully blocking 59% of incoming strikes compared to Rahiki’s 57% defense rate.

On the grappling front, Tommy McMillen registers an average of 0.50 takedowns every three rounds, with a success rate of 15%. He has a strong defense, successfully stopping 83% of takedown attempts against him. In contrast, Marwan Rahiki also secures takedowns at a 15% success rate while defending 80% of the attempts against him. Additionally, McMillen averages 0.6 submission attempts every three rounds, whereas Rahiki is slightly more aggressive with 0.8 attempts per 15 minutes of fighting.

In his last appearance, Tommy McMillen faced off against Alberto Montes, winning via a decisive punch in the third round. Montes managed to land 56 out of 147 total strikes, achieving a 38% hit rate. Meanwhile, McMillen excelled, landing 255 of 517 strikes—49% accuracy overall. Specifically on significant strikes aimed at the head, McMillen connected with 185 out of 429 attempts. Notably, both fighters found success from a distance, with all strikes from Montes and 92% from McMillen being significant long-range shots.

In his previous bout, Marwan Rahiki competed against Ollie Schmid and secured a victory with a punch in the first round. Schmid hit 100% of his strikes from distance, while Rahiki achieved an impressive 86% accuracy from the same range. Overall, Rahiki landed 55%, connecting on 22 out of 40 significant strikes, with 14 aimed at the head. Schmid, on the other hand, managed just 9 out of 30 significant strikes, failing to connect on 15 headshot attempts throughout the fight.

Notable Fights on the Card

A fight of interest features Waldo Cortes Acosta against Curtis Blaydes. Cortes Acosta aims for a victory to improve his record to 17-3-0. At 34, he weighs 260 lbs and stands 6’4″ tall with a reach of 78″. His opponent, Blaydes, also at 6’4″ tall, weighs in at 265 lbs, holding a professional record of 19-6-0 (1 NC) at the age of 35. In grappling, Cortes Acosta averages 0.40 takedowns every 15 minutes, while Blaydes excels with 5.12 takedowns every three rounds. On striking, Cortes Acosta connects at 48% accuracy with an average of 5.34 strikes per minute, contrasting with Blaydes’ 52% accuracy and 4.18 strikes landed per minute.

Another exciting clash is set to occur as Dan Ige faces David Martinez. Martinez, with a record of 14-1-0, weighs 135 lbs, is 5’5″ tall, and has a reach of 67″. Ige stands slightly taller at 5’7″ and holds a record of 19-11-0 at 135 lbs. Martinez demonstrates impressive grappling, defending against 80% of takedown attempts, finishing 25% of his tries, while Ige concludes 26% of his takedowns and defends 56% against his opponents. In terms of striking output, Martinez averages 2.90 strikes absorbed per minute while delivering 4.82, whereas Ige takes 3.56 strikes per minute and lands 3.60.

Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s UFC bout against the spread?

Prediction: Back Tommy McMillen (-171)