- Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
- Date: Monday, June 23, 2025
- Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
- Betting Odds: Atlanta (+172) New York (-210)
The Atlanta Braves, currently at 34-39, are set to face off against the New York Mets, boasting a record of 45-30, this Monday at Citi Field. Atlanta enters the game as the underdog at the odds of +172, while New York is favored at -210. The over/under for the game has been established at 8 runs. Spencer Schwellenbach and Paul Blackburn are the anticipated starting pitchers.
This season, the Braves hold a slugging percentage of .386, with a total of 620 strikeouts and 256 walks. They have accumulated 294 RBIs and 605 hits, leading to a batting average of .245. As a team, Atlanta has recorded 101 doubles and 78 home runs, amassing a total of 307 runs scored and an on-base percentage of .319. On average, the Braves score 4.2 runs per game, placing them 19th in the league.
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The Braves’ pitching staff has recorded an earned run average (ERA) of 3.66, ranking 11th in the league, while making 669 strikeouts throughout the season. They have permitted 79 home runs and 283 runs overall, placing 8th in the league. The Atlanta pitching unit has granted 232 walks with a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.80 this season. They’ve surrendered 551 hits, averaging 7.7 hits per nine innings, and yielded 263 earned runs, maintaining a K/BB ratio of 2.88 and a WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched) of 1.21.
Atlanta has utilized 226 relief pitchers this season, with those relievers inheriting 105 base runners, of which 32.4% have crossed home plate. With 10 saves out of 22 chances, Atlanta’s relief squad has achieved a save percentage of 45.5% in 49 save situations. They also hold 27 holds this season, ranking last in MLB. The Braves’ relief pitchers have taken the mound with runners on base 77 times and in 75 high leverage scenarios.
The Braves’ defense has registered 1,939 putouts, 646 assists, and 28 errors, giving them a fielding percentage of .989, which ranks 4th in the league. They have successfully converted 70.8% of balls in play into outs over 5,817 innings, placing them 10th in professional baseball.
Spencer Schwellenbach has pitched for 219 innings, accumulating 219 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.32, having allowed 81 earned runs. His career WHIP stands at 1.035 as he has given up 188 hits (7.7 hits per nine innings) and recorded 39 walks. Schwellenbach holds a career record of 13-11 and a FIP of 3.27 after facing 884 batters in his MLB tenure.
The New York Mets have tallied 93 home runs along with 324 RBIs this season, hitting 122 doubles and drawing 272 walks while scoring 333 runs. Their on-base percentage is .328, with a batting average of .245. The Mets currently have a slugging percentage of .416 and average 4.44 runs per game, ranking 11th in MLB. They have struck out 585 times during the season (23rd in baseball) with a total of 613 hits.
The Mets’ pitching staff has collectively achieved a WHIP of 1.260 and a FIP of 3.51 this season. They rank 7th in MLB for the fewest hits allowed, giving up 571. So far, the Mets have conceded 265 runs, resulting in a team ERA of 3.05 (227 earned runs). Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is at 8.80, boasting 652 strikeouts versus 272 walks, allowing 54 home runs and conceding 3.57 runs per nine innings, good for 2nd in the league.
New York’s relief pitchers have an inherited run scoring rate of 30.7% from 114 inherited base runners. They have pitched 97 times in high leverage situations and 77 times with runners on base. The Mets have been involved in 86 save situations, achieving 50 holds alongside 14 blown saves. They sit 21st in baseball with a save percentage of 61.1%, having used 234 relief pitchers this season. New York has turned to its relievers for 36 save chances, converting 22 into saves.
The Mets have completed 61 double plays, maintaining a fielding percentage of .987 (14th in professional baseball). They have recorded 678 assists, 36 errors, and a total of 2,007 putouts this season. Over 6,021 innings played, the Mets boast a defensive efficiency of 70.1% (15th in the majors).
In his MLB career, Paul Blackburn has allowed 488 hits while recording 337 strikeouts across 441 innings pitched. Blackburn holds a career record of 22-29, with an ERA of 4.92, allowing 10.0 hits per nine innings. He has conceded a total of 241 earned runs and has a WHIP of 1.415, along with a FIP of 4.8. He has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.48 after facing 1,910 batters during his time in the MLB.
Who will come out on top in this pivotal MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Parlay’s Pundit’s Recommendation: Opt for New York (-210) and the under at 8 runs
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