- Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
- Event Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
- Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: Peacock
- Betting Odds: Chicago (+105) San Diego (-126)
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At Petco Park, the San Diego Padres (91-71) will take on the Chicago Cubs (89-73) in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card series this Tuesday. The current moneyline has Chicago at +105 and San Diego at -126, with an over/under set at 7.5. The projected starting pitchers are Matthew Boyd and Michael King.
The Chicago Cubs are currently averaging 5.3 runs per game, ranking them 1st in the league. They have tallied a total of 850 runs with an on-base percentage (OBP) of .339. The team has achieved 274 doubles and has hit 220 home runs, contributing to a total of 804 RBIs and 1,398 hits this season. Their batting average stands at .251, complemented by a slugging percentage of .428. However, they have struck out 1,345 times while drawing 674 walks.
In terms of pitching, the Cubs have a K/BB ratio of 2.52 and a collective WHIP of 1.26. They’ve conceded 231 home runs and 703 total runs (12th in MLB). Chicago has allowed 1,323 hits this season, averaging 8.2 hits per 9 innings, alongside 662 earned runs. Their team ERA is currently at 4.12 (14th in MLB), with 1,260 strikeouts and 500 walks issued this year, while their FIP is 4.60.
This year, the Cubs have had 518 relief appearances, inheriting 234 runners with a 33.8% scoring rate. Their bullpen has achieved 57 holds (30th in MLB) and has seen 36 saves out of 64 opportunities, marking a save percentage of 56.3% across 128 save situations.
The Cubs’ defense has turned 71.9% of balls put in play into outs, placing them 3rd in MLB. With a total of 4,341 putouts, 1,547 assists, and 61 errors, their fielding percentage remains at an impressive .990, ranking them 1st in the major leagues, alongside 124 double plays.
Matthew Boyd has pitched 1,214 innings in his career, accumulating 1,141 strikeouts. Holding a career win-loss record of 70-82, Boyd has a FIP of 4.44, facing 5,134 batters. His career ERA is 4.51 (608 earned runs) with a WHIP of 1.270. He has surrendered 1,167 hits, averaging 8.7 hits per nine innings, while walking 375 batters.
The San Diego Padres have hit 183 home runs this season, accumulating 696 RBIs. They have recorded 234 doubles and achieved 722 runs while drawing 554 walks, showcasing an OBP of .319 and a batting average of .244. The Padres have a team slugging percentage of .398 and are averaging 4.46 runs per game (16th in the league), having struck out 1,310 times (22nd in MLB) and amassed 1,314 hits.
On the pitching side, the Padres have a WHIP of 1.294 and a FIP of 4.20. They rank 13th overall in total hits given up (1,304), having allowed 681 runs and posting a team ERA of 3.99 this season (636 earned runs). Their K/BB ratio stands at 8.20 (1,315 strikeouts against 554 walks), and they’ve relinquished 180 home runs while permitting 4.27 runs per 9 innings (9th in MLB).
San Diego ranks 8th in the league with a save rate of 70.6% and has utilized 550 relievers this season. Their relievers have made appearances in 185 high leverage scenarios and 153 with runners on base. In 179 save situations, the Padres have tallied 106 holds with 20 blown saves. Their relievers have secured 48 saves out of 68 save opportunities, with an inherited run scoring percentage of 31.0% from 248 inherited runners.
Defensively, the Padres have executed 131 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .989 (2nd in the league). They’ve amassed 1,431 assists, 64 errors, and 4,309 putouts this season. Over 12,927 innings of play, San Diego boasts a defensive efficiency rate of 70.6% (11th in professional baseball).
Michael King, with a career win-loss record of 43-39, has a 3.23 ERA while allowing 7.5 hits per nine innings. His K/BB ratio is 2.97, having faced 2,826 batters throughout his MLB journey. King has allowed 244 earned runs, holding a WHIP of 1.190 along with a FIP of 3.20. Over 679 innings, he has given up 566 hits while collecting 718 strikeouts.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup—against the spread or on the moneyline?
Selection: Back San Diego (-126) and the under on 7.5 runs
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