Staying competitive while selecting games against the spread in the NFL is quite challenging. However, leveraging the opening lines can help you secure a better price early in the week—something that might not be available by kickoff. Even an extra point or two can significantly impact your long-term profitability. In the previous week, our bets ended with a 1-2 record, with both losses occurring by less than a field goal. The Cowboys clinched a victory in overtime but failed to cover the five-point spread, while the Broncos suffered a last-second defeat against the Colts. Fortunately, we celebrated a win on Monday night when the Buccaneers (+2.5) achieved an outright victory. Before diving into an exciting Week 3 lineup, let’s explore the key developments from Week 2 in the NFL.
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- The Packers’ Championship Aspirations: Green Bay showcased their strength against the Washington Commanders to kickstart Week 2. Micah Parsons made an immediate impact defensively, while Jordan Love’s steady presence drives the Packers’ offense forward.
- Thrilling Showdown in Dallas: The Cowboys and Giants delivered one of the season’s most exciting games, featuring five lead changes in the fourth quarter, including four in the last two minutes. The Cowboys managed to pull off a 40-37 victory in overtime.
- Injury Concerns for Quarterbacks: Injuries struck key players like Joe Burrow, JJ McCarthy, and Jayden Daniels during Week 2, raising significant concerns for these playoff hopefuls. In the NFL, availability often determines success.
- Broncos Face Disappointment: The Broncos were one kick away from a 2-0 record but were hit with a 15-yard leverage penalty on a special teams play. Late-game penalties are becoming a notable issue this season, while the Colts improved to 2-0 as a result.
- Controversy Over the Tush Push: In the Super Bowl rematch, the Eagles faced the Chiefs, with the Tush Push tactic prominently featured. Numerous missed offsides and false starts allowed the Eagles to secure a victory against Kansas City.
- Concerns for the Chiefs: An 0-2 start can be detrimental in the NFL playoff race. Kansas City faced two highly competitive teams, and while they can still rebound, both the Broncos and Chargers look poised to challenge their long-standing dominance in the AFC West.
Now that Week 2 is behind us, it’s time to focus on the opening lines for Week 3. It’s crucial to make these picks swiftly, as securing these lines before they inevitably shift is essential for long-term gain in the NFL.
Game 1: Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns
Opening Line: Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
The Green Bay Packers have been formidable in the first two games of the season, making this an excellent line to secure right away. The offense boasts a plethora of pass-catching options for Jordan Love, likely overwhelming the Cleveland defense. Their balanced attack could replicate Baltimore’s success against the Browns last week, leaving little room for a response from Cleveland. Joe Flacco’s age is apparent, and the Browns may need to look to their rookies sooner than later. Regardless of the quarterback situation, scoring will be a challenge for Cleveland. Green Bay has stifled offenses like the Lions and Commanders to start 2-0—both among the strongest in the NFC. With Micah Parsons making an immediate impact, this team is capable of winning by significant margins week after week. Given the Browns’ current trajectory, an upset seems highly unlikely. This line has already started to climb to 8 points at some betting sites, and I expect it to exceed double digits before kickoff. Lock this line in immediately.
Pick: Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Game 2: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Opening Line: Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Securing the Chargers under a field goal at home is a promising strategy for Week 3. Denver’s defense has appeared vulnerable during the initial two weeks, and Justin Herbert is likely to excel. His pocket presence is impressive, and the Chargers’ substantial investment in their offensive line is beginning to pay off. When given time, Herbert consistently makes favorable decisions, followed by precise throws. While the Chargers may be without Khalil Mack on defense, he is just one asset in a powerful unit. The Chargers excel in stopping the run, and Bo Nix has struggled in high-pressure situations this season. It’s easy to see why the Chargers are favored against a well-rounded Broncos lineup, but this line should be above the critical three-point threshold rather than lower. We noticed a movement away from the Broncos leading up to their Week 2 faceoff with the Colts, and a similar shift could happen again this week. Even if the line adjusts to -2 or -1.5 for the Chargers, that downside is considerably less impactful than a move to -3 or -3.5. Secure this price while it’s available.
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Game 3: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants
Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs are eager for a win, and facing the Giants in New York presents a favorable opportunity. Although the Giants have shown improvement with Russell Wilson at quarterback, they remain disorganized on both sides of the field. Wilson can deliver an impressive deep ball but often follows it up with poor throws, making him unreliable against a motivated Chiefs defense. Despite limited pass-catching options, Kansas City’s defense can likely help them exceed this line. With Chris Jones and George Karlaftis applying pressure, the Giants’ offensive line is still unproven. At 36, Wilson lacks the mobility to evade pressure, and the Chiefs will apply relentless pressure. Under Andy Reid’s leadership, an exceptional effort is expected, particularly with the stakes so high early in the season. A loss here—followed by a challenging Week 4 matchup against Baltimore—could set the Chiefs on a perilous path towards an 0-4 record, making this matchup feel like a must-win. The line is currently below crucial numbers of 6 and 7, presenting another high-reward, low-risk opportunity with nearly a week to kickoff.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
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