As Week 4 wraps up with a thrilling Monday Night Football encounter, the Cincinnati Bengals, without their star quarterback Joe Burrow, head to the Denver Broncos’ home turf for a captivating AFC clash.
While it would certainly add to the excitement if Burrow were healthy, his absence changes the dynamic. Last December, in their previous matchup, Burrow showcased his prowess with over 400 yards passing, steering his team to a 30-24 overtime victory—despite enduring seven sacks!
This game marked one of the rare instances where the Bengals secured a close victory in 2024, even though their defense struggled to contain the opposition.
Despite the Burrow-less storyline, the Bengals remain competitive, currently tied for the top spot in the AFC Central. This highlights just how young and evolving the 2025 season is in late September.
It’s too early to evaluate these teams harshly based on their performances thus far. The Bengals’ offense thrived with Burrow at the helm, even if the offensive line struggled, while their running game has been virtually non-existent along with a shaky defense.
The Bengals without Burrow are, in many respects, still the same team, albeit missing one of their most essential players.
The 1-2 Denver Broncos, too, continue with a similar identity to last season.
Denver boasts a formidable defense, particularly in their pass rush and secondary. Under head coach Sean Payton, known for his winning strategies, the Broncos are looking to bounce back. My past betting experience with them during Bo Nix’s first year was successful.
While they maintain their core identity, not all aspects are positive. It’s still early in the season, yet I anticipated some growth in Nix’s decision-making. Unfortunately, he faltered late against the Chargers. Such improvements are typically expected in a player’s sophomore season, though regressions can occur elsewhere.
Doc’s Sports provides expert NFL predictions for all matchups on our dedicated NFL predictions page.
Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Some may glance at this betting line and fret that they missed an opportunity, especially as it opened at a mere (-6) for the Broncos. Although closing line value may be lost, there’s significant movement we need to consider.
With 73% of tickets and 83% of the betting volume backing the Broncos, market sentiment is clear. Much of this support came before the line adjusted to 7 or 7.5. Still, it appears that neither the public nor sharp bettors are keen on wagering on the Bengals this week.
Point Total: 44.5
The consensus over/under has remained steady at 44.5 since its opening. However, there are some lines at 44 for over bettors to consider.
Despite Bo Nix’s late-game struggles, the Broncos are just one first down and a silly special teams penalty away from a potential 3-0 record.
This game could become a lopsided affair, reminiscent of the recent Vikings vs. Bengals encounter that finished 48-10. With Carson Wentz leading his team to a 38-point victory in 2025, his throwing volume since 2022 has been significant!
If Sean Payton can’t devise an effective game plan for Nix in a critical matchup, questions will surely arise regarding the Broncos’ strategy.
- Moneyline Odds
- Bengals: +320
- Broncos: -400
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos Betting Insights
This poses a challenging situation for the Bengals. They are facing a motivated Broncos team that suffered from questionable officiating in one loss and narrowly lost to their rival in another.
Cincinnati quarterback Jake Browning, for better or worse, isn’t shy about taking risks. If we back the Broncos, it’s crucial to consider Browning’s mindset and willingness to play aggressively with less pressure.
Should he continue to throw interceptions, a change may be on the horizon. However, they rely heavily on the passing game, with a dismal average of 2.4 yards per rush. Their defense is struggling, meaning they need more than just a game manager—they require a miracle.
For betting this week, I’m leaning towards taking the Broncos at (-7.5). This match-up feels like a likely 30-10 result. Denver’s defensive front holds the league’s top pressure rate and their secondary is filled with playmakers.
Instead of sticking with that daunting spread, let’s focus on a first-half team total. My prediction is that Denver will jump out to an early lead, putting points on the board during their initial half, even if just through field goals.
By betting solely on the first half, we might miss some of the intense second-half pressure from the Denver D, but it will be consistent throughout. The Bengals’ running game has been one of the worst in the league so far, allowing the pass rushers to assert their dominance right from the start.
I recommend betting on the Broncos’ first-half team total to exceed 12.5. Denver could easily net 13 points well before the end of the first quarter, especially if Cincinnati scores quickly.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos Betting Recommendation
Pick: Broncos First Half Team Total Over 12.5 Points
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