Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kansas City Royals
Date: Tuesday, July 8, 2025
Venue: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City
Betting Odds: Pittsburgh (+126), Kansas City (-152)
The Kansas City Royals, with a record of 43-48, will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who hold a 38-53 record, at Kauffman Stadium this Tuesday. The Pirates sit at +126 on the moneyline while the Royals are at -152. Total runs are set at 8, with Mitch Keller and Seth Lugo expected to take the mound for each team.
This season, the Pirates have accumulated 118 doubles and a total of 61 home runs. Their current slugging percentage is .341, and they have been struck out 797 times while drawing 288 walks. The team averages 3.4 runs per game, positioning them 29th in the league, and they have a cumulative 300 RBIs along with 694 hits. Their batting average stands at .231, with an on-base percentage of .303.
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The Pirates’ pitching staff features a K/BB ratio of 2.54 with a WHIP of 1.19. They have allowed 78 home runs and 347 runs in total, ranking 4th in the MLB. Stemming from 690 base hits allowed (averaging 7.7 per 9 innings) and 323 earned runs, Pittsburgh’s team ERA currently sits at 3.61 (7th in baseball). The rotation has fanned 680 batters so far and issued 268 walks, with a collective FIP of 3.78 this year.
This season, Pirates’ relief pitchers have taken the mound with runners on 85 occasions, including 92 high leverage situations. They have recorded 43 holds (24th in MLB) and a save rate of 54.5%, with 18 saves out of 33 opportunities. Out of 280 relievers utilized this season, 32.8% of inherited runners have crossed the plate.
Pittsburgh has tallied 2,413 putouts, 791 assists, and 42 errors this season, boasting a fielding percentage of .987, ranking them 11th in professional baseball. They have executed 75 double plays and converted 71.8% of balls in play to outs over 7,239 innings — placing 2nd in the majors.
Keller has pitched 807 innings in his career, recording 771 strikeouts. With a career record of 39-60, Keller has a FIP of 4.40 and has faced 3,514 hitters. His career ERA is 4.47 (with 401 earned runs) and a WHIP of 1.385, having allowed 844 hits (an average of 9.4 per 9 innings) along with 274 walks.
The Royals have notched 63 home runs and 300 RBIs this season, totaling 155 doubles and averaging 3.34 runs per game (30th in the league). They have a team OBP of .299 and a batting average of .243, with 304 runs scored and 740 hits, having struck out 631 times (28th in the MLB).
Kansas City’s pitching staff has given up 334 runs this season, maintaining a team ERA of 3.48 (with 312 earned runs). They have permitted 92 home runs and average 3.72 runs per 9 innings (3rd in the league). Their WHIP stands at 1.218, complemented by a FIP of 3.82. Kansas City’s K/BB ratio is impressive at 8.20, with 738 strikeouts versus 264 walks, placing them 12th overall.
In save situations, Kansas City relief pitchers have entered 36 times and have successfully converted 27 saves, ranking them 2nd in the league with a save percentage of 75.0%. They have utilized 295 bullpen pitchers and had 101 high leverage appearances, with a 30.8% inherited score rate from 130 inherited runners. Their total number of saves accumulated stands at 49, with 9 blown saves from 86 save situations.
The Royals have executed 70 double plays and maintain a fielding percentage of .988, ranking 6th in professional baseball. They have 802 assists, 39 errors, and a total of 2,424 putouts throughout the season. Their defensive efficiency stands at 70.9% over 7,272 innings.
Lugo, with a career record of 62-45, boasts a 3.31 ERA and allows 7.9 hits per nine innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.63, having faced 3,866 hitters in his MLB career. With a WHIP of 1.147 and a FIP of 3.3, Lugo has given up 346 earned runs and has allowed 830 hits while striking out 912 batters over 942 innings.
Who do you think will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Prediction: Go with Pittsburgh (+126)
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