Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox Prediction for 7/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox

Scheduled Date: Friday, July 11, 2025

Venue: Rate Field, Chicago, IL

Broadcast: Chicago Sports Network

Betting Odds: Cleveland (-122) Chicago (+102)

The Cleveland Guardians (41-48) are heading to Rate Field this Friday aiming for a victory against the Chicago White Sox (30-61). The current betting odds favor the Guardians at -122, with the White Sox set at +102. The total runs for this matchup have been projected at 9. The starting pitchers for this game are Gavin Williams and Shane Smith.

This season, the Guardians have posted a slugging percentage of .363 and have struck out 731 times while being walked 274 times. They have accumulated 304 RBIs and 651 hits, with a batting average of .224. The Guardians have made 126 doubles and hit 87 home runs. With 319 runs scored, their On-Base Percentage (OBP) stands at .295. As a team, the Cleveland Guardians average 3.6 runs per game, ranking them 26th in the MLB.

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This year, the Guardians have a team ERA of 3.97, which ranks 18th in the league, and they have struck out 741 batters. Cleveland’s pitchers have given up 95 home runs and allowed 376 runs, placing them 15th in MLB. Their walks total stands at 327, with a FIP of 4.14 for the season. The Guardians have conceded 739 hits (averaging 8.5 hits per 9 innings) and 347 earned runs, resulting in a K/BB ratio of 2.27 and a team WHIP of 1.36.

Cleveland’s pitchers have faced runners on base 75 times and appeared in high leverage situations 89 times. Their bullpen leads the league with 61 holds this season. The Guardians’ relievers hold a save rate of 72.7%, having entered 95 save situations, recording 24 successful saves while failing 9 times out of 33 attempts. The bullpen has inherited 108 runners, with a 37.0% scoring rate. This year, the Guardians have deployed 298 relievers.

Cleveland’s defensive efficiency remains at 68.6%, ranking 24th in MLB as they have converted 7,074 innings into outs. They recorded 2,358 putouts, 714 assists, and 65 errors this season, leading to a fielding percentage of .979, placing them 28th overall. They’ve executed 68 double plays so far.

Gavin Williams (career record 11-19) has a FIP of 3.83 after facing 1,074 batters in the majors. He has given up 216 hits (averaging 7.8 hits per nine innings) and has 121 walks. His ERA stands at 3.89, with 108 earned runs, and a career WHIP of 1.347. Over 250 innings pitched, Williams has recorded 250 strikeouts.

The Chicago White Sox have a team OBP of .296 and a batting average of .222 this season. They have struck out 781 times, ranking 10th in MLB, and accumulated 662 hits. The White Sox have hit 70 home runs and recorded 300 RBIs, with a slugging percentage of .345. They average 3.46 runs per game, positioning them 28th in baseball, with 138 doubles while walking 299 times and scoring 315 runs.

Chicago’s pitching team has allowed 403 runs this year, with a team ERA of 4.14 (363 earned runs). They have given up 99 home runs, averaging 4.60 runs per 9 innings (22nd in MLB). The White Sox’s WHIP is 1.389, with a FIP of 4.52 for the season. Their K/BB ratio is 7.40 (652 strikeouts against 332 walks), placing them 20th in total hits allowed with 764.

The White Sox relievers have inherited 121 base runners, allowing 28.9% to score. They have pitched in 80 high leverage situations and 83 times with runners on base. With 67 save opportunities, they have achieved 41 holds, yet faced 15 blown saves. Ranking 30th in MLB, their save rate is 42.3%, and they have used 283 relief pitchers this year. The Chicago bullpen has stepped into 26 save chances, securing 11 saves.

Defensively, the White Sox have turned 77 double plays, recording a fielding percentage of .983, which is 25th in MLB. They have achieved 750 assists, 54 errors, and 2,367 putouts throughout the season. In 7,101 innings played, their defensive efficiency stands at 69.7%, ranking 19th in baseball.

In his MLB career, Shane Smith has allowed 74 hits with 76 strikeouts over 83 innings. He has given up 39 earned runs, holding a WHIP of 1.334 and a FIP of 4.2. His strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.05 after facing 366 batters. Smith’s career record is 3-7, with a 4.22 ERA, allowing 8.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will come out on top in tonight’s MLB matchup—on the spread or the moneyline?

Guy Bruhn’s Recommendation: Bet on Chicago (+102)

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