- Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez
- UFC Rio
- Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Saturday, October 11, 2025
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On Saturday, October 11, 2025, Vicente Luque will go head-to-head against Joel Alvarez at UFC Rio. The initial moneyline sets Luque at +420, while Alvarez is favored at -550.
Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque boasts a record of 23-11-1. The 33-year-old fighter weighs in at 170 lbs and stands 5’11” tall with a reach of 75″. In contrast, Joel “El Fenomeno” Alvarez has a record of 22-3-0, stands at 6’3″, weighs 155 lbs, and enjoys a reach of 77″. When it comes to striking, Luque lands an average of 5.02 significant strikes per minute, while Alvarez connects with 4.51 significant strikes per minute. Luque’s striking accuracy is 51%, compared to Alvarez’s 53%. In terms of defense, Luque allows 5.25 significant strikes against him per minute, while Alvarez absorbs only 3.32. Luque successfully deflects 52% of the significant strikes thrown at him, while Alvarez stops 50% of the attempts from opponents.
| UFC Rio | Vicente Luque | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +420 | -550 |
| Record | 23-11-1 | 22-3-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 9:28 | 7:04 |
| Height | 5’11” | 6’3″ |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 75″ | 77″ |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.02 | 4.51 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 53% |
In the wrestling department, Vicente Luque showcases his skills with a takedown rate of 0.97 per 15 minutes, successfully completing 51% of his attempts while defending against 61% of his opponents’ takedown attempts. Conversely, Alvarez has not completed any takedown attempts and successfully avoids 40% of his opponents’ takedown efforts. When it comes to submissions, Luque attempts just 0.7 submissions per 3 rounds, while Alvarez is more aggressive with 1.2 submission attempts in the same time frame.
In his most recent appearance in the Octagon, Vicente Luque faced Kevin Holland, but was submitted via an anaconda choke in the second round. Holland recorded 44 of 78 strikes during that fight, while Luque landed 24 out of 46. Concerning significant strikes, Holland effectively landed 40 out of 74 attempts (54% accuracy), including 25 out of 58 targeted at the head. In contrast, Luque managed to connect 52% of his significant strikes, landing 24 out of 46, with 14 of those aimed at the head. Notably, 65% of Holland’s successful strikes and 100% of those by Luque were achieved at a distance.
For Joel Alvarez, his last bout was against Drakkar Klose, where he secured a victory via a knee to the head in the first round. Klose landed all significant strikes he threw at a distance, while Alvarez boasted a 60% success rate on his significant strikes from a distance. Alvarez recorded an impressive 83% of his significant strikes, with 20 out of 24 hitting the mark, including 15 of 19 directed at the head. Klose managed to land 7 out of 13 significant strikes, including only 1 of 6 aimed at the head. Overall, Klose’s total strikes were 16 out of 23, while Alvarez connected on 39 of 44 total strikes.
Other Notable Fights to Watch
Don’t miss the exciting matchup between Jhonata Diniz and Mario Pinto. Diniz enters with a record of 9-1-0, weighing 254 lbs and standing 6’4″. He measures an orthodox reach of 79″. Pinto, on the other hand, stands at 6’5″ and weighs 265 lbs, undefeated with a record of 10-0-0. In grappling statistics, neither fighter has landed a takedown in their recent contests. Striking-wise, Diniz lands 4.58 strikes per minute with a 56% success rate, while Pinto efficiently connects with 71% of his strikes and averages 3.67 per minute.
If you are looking for thrilling matches, keep an eye out for the clash between Kaan Ofli and Ricardo Ramos. Ramos holds a professional record of 17-7-0, weighing 145 lbs and standing 5’9″, with a reach of 72″. Ofli, weighing 145 lbs and standing 5’7″, aims to improve on his 12-4-1 record. In terms of wrestling, Ramos successfully defends 70% of takedowns attempted against him and converts 57% of his own. Ofli, however, struggles with both takedowns and defense, managing 0% in both categories. In striking, Ramos absorbs an average of 4.06 strikes per minute while dealing 2.97, whereas Ofli absorbs 2.93 strikes per minute and offenses at 2.00 per minute.
Which fighter will prevail in tonight’s UFC match against the spread?
Pick: Opt for Vicente Luque (+420)
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