- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Friday, October 10, 2025
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: ESPN
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In a thrilling Game 4 of the WNBA Finals, the Phoenix Mercury (27-17) clash against the Las Vegas Aces (30-14) at PHX Arena this Friday. Las Vegas leads the series with an impressive 3-0 record, entering this matchup as 2.5-point favorites. The over/under for this game is set at 163.5 points.
The Aces secured a narrow victory in Game 3, finishing at 90-88. Las Vegas showcased their shooting prowess with a field goal percentage of 42.6%, hitting 29 of 68 attempts, including 9 of 24 from beyond the arc. At the free-throw line, they excelled by converting 23 of 25 shots, resulting in a stellar 92.0% success rate. The team dominated the boards with a total of 43 rebounds, including 9 offensive boards, and distributed 21 assists. However, they also recorded 11 turnovers and made 9 steals. Defensively, Las Vegas allowed Phoenix to shoot 43.9% from the field with 29 of 66 shots made. The Mercury managed to gather 34 rebounds (8 offensive and 26 defensive) and earned 1 block, while achieving a free-throw success rate of 74.2% by sinking 23 of their 31 attempts. They also made 7 out of 21 three-point attempts.
A standout performer in the last game was A’ja Wilson, who scored 34 points on 11 of 20 shooting. She played 38 minutes and recorded 14 rebounds, finishing with a 55.0% shooting percentage and 4 assists.
The Las Vegas Aces have demonstrated exceptional performance this season with a record of 30-14. They average 11.9 turnovers per game and commit 16.6 personal fouls on a nightly basis. In terms of rebounding, the Aces average 33.5 boards per game and have tallied 861 assists this season, placing them 9th in the league. Their three-point shooting stands at 35.1% (400 out of 1,138), while they boast an impressive 82.4% from the free-throw line. Offensively, they score an average of 83.6 points per game (6th in the WNBA), connecting on 43.9% of their field goal attempts. On the defensive side, Las Vegas forces an average of 12.5 turnovers and draws 17.2 fouls, allowing opponents to shoot 43.6% from the field. They rank 9th in the WNBA for assists allowed, with 897 surrendered throughout the season and allow 31.6% shooting on three-point attempts, ranking 7th in points allowed at 80.7.
In Game 3, the Mercury recorded 26 defensive rebounds and 8 offensive boards, totaling 34 rebounds for the game. They turned the ball over 11 times while securing 9 steals. The Aces committed 15 personal fouls, sending the Mercury to the free-throw line 31 times, where they converted 23 attempts for a rate of 74.2%. Phoenix hit 7 of 21 three-pointers, equating to 33.3%. Overall, the Mercury finished the game with a shooting percentage of 43.9%, making 29 of 66 attempts from the floor. They allowed the Aces to achieve a field goal percentage of 42.6% for the game, while the Mercury made 9 out of 24 three-points and 23 of 25 free throws for a 92.0% rate. In terms of rebounding, they conceded 43 boards to Las Vegas, including 9 offensive rebounds.
DeWanna Bonner played a significant role for the Mercury, scoring 25 points on 7 of 11 shooting (63.6%) while also collecting 10 rebounds in her 31 minutes on the court. However, she did not record any assists.
The Phoenix Mercury finished the season with a record of 27-17. They have accumulated a total of 3,643 points, averaging 82.8 points per game, and they average 34.7 rebounds per game. The team commits 17.8 fouls per game while achieving a free-throw success rate of 78.4%. Offensively, the Mercury shoot 43.3% from the field, ranking 9th in the league. They average 21.0 assists per game (5th in the WNBA) and experience 12.5 turnovers per game. Defensively, they rank 5th in points allowed per game with 80.1, and they average conceding 19.7 assists and 35.3 rebounds per game, ranking 6th and 10th respectively in the WNBA. Opponents shoot 32.1% from beyond the arc against them, and they allow teams to convert 80.4% of their free throws. Phoenix forces an average of 13.8 turnovers and restricts opponents to a shooting percentage of 42.7% from the field (4th in the league).
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s matchup against the spread?
Prediction: Back Las Vegas (-2.5)
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