Matchup: Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins
Date: Friday, July 18, 2025
Venue: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Florida
Betting Odds: Kansas City (-122) Miami (+102)
This Friday, the Miami Marlins (44-51) are set to clash with the Kansas City Royals (47-50) at loanDepot park. The moneyline has Kansas City at -122 while Miami opens at +102. The over/under for this match is fixed at 8 runs, with Seth Lugo and Sandy Alcantara expected as the starting pitchers.
The Kansas City Royals have a slugging percentage of .374 along with 670 strikeouts compared to 227 walks. This season, they have achieved 324 RBIs and amassed 794 hits, resulting in a team batting average of .245. The Royals have recorded 170 doubles and hit 73 home runs, accumulating a total of 328 runs scored, with an on-base percentage of .300. Currently, Kansas City averages 3.4 runs per game, placing them 29th in the league.
On the pitching front, they maintain a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.21. Royals pitchers have allowed 98 home runs and 356 total runs, ranking second in the league. So far, Kansas City has surrendered 761 hits (averaging 7.9 hits per nine innings) and 334 earned runs, resulting in an impressive ERA of 3.49 (second in the league). Their pitching staff has achieved 794 strikeouts with 284 walks, resulting in a combined FIP of 3.80 for the season.
This season, the Royals’ bullpen has a save percentage of 70.0%, having entered 92 save situations. Out of 137 inherited runners, 31.4% have scored. The relievers have stepped in with players on base 96 times and over 100 appearances in high-leverage situations. Kansas City’s relief pitchers have seen 315 appearances this year, recording 51 holds (20th in the league), with 28 out of 40 save opportunities converted successfully.
The Royals have amassed 2,586 putouts and 858 assists for the season, committing only 41 errors. Their fielding percentage stands at .988, placing them 7th in the majors, along with 74 double plays turned. Kansas City holds a 71.1% efficiency rate for balls in play over their 7,758 innings, ranking them 8th in professional baseball.
Pitcher Seth Lugo has thrown 948 innings in his career, striking out 917 batters. With a career record of 62-45, Lugo holds a FIP of 3.25 and has faced 3,888 batters in his MLB tenure. His earned run average of 3.30 includes 348 earned runs, with a WHIP of 1.145 and 834 hits allowed (7.9 hits per nine innings), alongside 252 walks.
On the other side, the Miami Marlins boast a slugging percentage of .392, averaging 4.29 runs per game (18th in MLB). They have hit 159 doubles, drawn 281 walks, and scored 408 runs. With 87 home runs tallied so far this season and 392 RBIs, the Marlins have struck out 759 times (23rd in the league), leading to 825 hits. Their on-base percentage stands at .315, while their team batting average is .254 this season.
As a pitching unit, the Marlins carry a WHIP of 1.330 and a collective FIP of 4.12. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 8.00 (753 strikeouts against 303 walks), and they rank 23rd in total hits conceded with 821. They have allowed 104 home runs and average 4.93 runs per nine innings (24th in MLB). The Miami pitching staff has given up 463 runs this season, resulting in an ERA of 4.58 (430 earned runs).
The Marlins have used their bullpen in 36 save opportunities, successfully converting 22 saves. Ranking 18th in the league with a save rate of 61.1%, Miami has sent 303 relievers to the mound this year. Their bullpen has faced 101 high-leverage situations and recorded 79 occurrences with runners on base, achieving a score rate of 31.3% from 115 inherited runners. This season, Miami has achieved 50 holds and has faced 14 blown saves out of 87 save situations.
Over their 7,605 innings, the Marlins hold a fielding efficiency of 69.2% (20th in MLB). With a .986 fielding percentage (18th in the majors), they have turned 65 double plays, notching 831 assists, 48 errors, and 2,535 putouts this season.
In his career, Sandy Alcantara has given up 867 hits while accumulating 860 strikeouts over 991 innings. He has allowed 405 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.187 and a FIP of 3.6. Alcantara boasts a K/BB ratio of 2.77 and has faced 4,091 hitters in the majors. With a record of 45-64, he has a career ERA of 3.68, allowing an average of 7.9 hits per nine innings.
What are your predictions for tonight’s MLB showdown, both against the spread and the moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Recommended Bet: Pick Miami (+102)
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