Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets
Date: Saturday, July 19, 2025
Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
Betting Odds: Cincinnati (+106) New York (-128)
The Cincinnati Reds (50-47) will visit Citi Field this Saturday, aiming to secure a victory against the New York Mets (55-42). Betting odds indicate the Reds at +106, while the Mets are set at -128. The game’s over/under is set at 8 runs, with Nick Martinez and Sean Manaea as the starting pitchers.
This season, the Cincinnati Reds are averaging 4.6 runs per game, ranking 13th in the league. They have accumulated 441 runs with a team on-base percentage (OBP) of .317. The Reds have hit 156 doubles and 103 home runs, resulting in 417 RBIs and 800 hits, yielding a batting average of .246. Their slugging percentage stands at .397, with 842 strikeouts and 317 walks recorded.
Regarding pitching, the Reds have a season ERA of 3.91, placing them 17th in the league, while striking out 783 batters. Their pitchers have allowed 114 home runs and given up a total of 410 runs. With 302 walks issued, their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is at 4.18. Cincinnati’s pitchers have given up 761 hits this season, representing an average of 8.0 hits per 9 innings, with 373 earned runs. Their current K/BB ratio is 2.59, and the staff has a WHIP of 1.24.
The Reds’ bullpen has a save percentage of 67.6%, having faced 95 save opportunities. They’ve inherited 122 runners, 33.6% of whom have scored. The relief unit has been called into action 86 times in high-pressure situations and 327 different relief pitchers have taken the mound this year. They have earned 59 holds (10th in MLB) and have converted 23 of 34 save chances.
In the field, the Reds have recorded 2,573 putouts, 739 assists, and 48 errors, leading to a fielding percentage of .986, ranked 19th in the league. They have turned 58 double plays and boast a defensive efficiency of 71.5%, ranking 4th in the majors across 7,719 innings played.
Nick Martinez has pitched 885 innings in his career, accumulating 630 strikeouts and allowing an ERA of 4.18 with a WHIP of 1.308. With a career record of 44-54, he has faced 3,759 batters and given up 886 hits.
On the other side, the New York Mets have recorded 124 home runs and 416 RBIs this season, achieving 152 doubles and 426 total runs scored with a team OBP of .323 and a batting average of .244. Their current slugging percentage is .415, while averaging 4.39 runs per game (14th in MLB). They have struck out 769 times (19th overall) with a count of 788 hits.
The Mets’ pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.298 and a FIP of 3.76 for the season. Their K/BB ratio is 8.70, with 827 strikeouts against 348 walks. They rank 11th in total hits allowed (768) and have permitted 83 home runs, along with an average of 3.99 runs per 9 innings (7th in the league). New York’s collective ERA stands at 3.56, allowing 381 runs this season.
New York’s relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound in 45 save opportunities, converting 28 saves, placing them 14th in MLB at a 62.2% save rate. They have utilized 309 relievers this season, with the bullpen pitching in 117 high-leverage situations and 105 times with runners on base. Their inherited run score percentage stands at 33.8% of 160 inherited runners. This season, the Mets have managed 62 holds and have blown 17 of their 107 save opportunities.
As for defensive metrics, the Mets have a defensive efficiency of 69.7% (18th in MLB) across 7,743 innings, turning 77 double plays with a fielding percentage of .987 (11th in MLB). As of now, they have recorded 2,581 putouts, 885 assists, and made 45 errors in the season.
Sean Manaea has allowed 1,088 hits in his MLB career while recording 1,109 strikeouts over 1,184 innings pitched. With a record of 77-62, his career ERA is 4.01, yielding 8.3 hits per 9 innings pitched. He has 527 earned runs allowed, with a WHIP of 1.202 and FIP of 3.9. Manaea has faced 4,933 batters throughout his career, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.31.
Who will come out on top in tonight’s matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Josh Schonwald’s Prediction: Bet on Cincinnati (+106)
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