Matchup: New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants
Date: Sunday, July 27, 2025
Venue: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Broadcast: NBC Bay Area
Betting Odds: New York (-196), San Francisco (+162)
The San Francisco Giants (54-49) are set to host the New York Mets (59-44) at Oracle Park this Sunday. The betting line currently favors New York at -196, while San Francisco sits at +162. The total for this game is set at 8 runs. Pitchers for this matchup will be Kodai Senga and Landen Roupp.
This season, the New York Mets have been averaging 4.4 runs per game, ranking them 15th in the league. They have scored a total of 451 runs with an on-base percentage of .322. The Mets have hit 159 doubles and recorded 130 home runs. Additionally, they have tallied 439 RBIs and 830 hits so far, with their team batting average at .242. New York’s slugging percentage stands at .411, having struck out 816 times while earning 357 walks.
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The Mets boast a team earned run average (ERA) of 3.57 this season, placing them 3rd in MLB, and their pitchers have recorded 881 strikeouts. Mets pitchers have allowed 90 home runs along with 406 runs (6th in the league). They have walked 371 batters, with a team FIP of 3.81 for the year. New York has given up 816 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and 363 earned runs, while their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.37, and their collective WHIP is 1.30.
This season, the Mets have utilized 331 relief pitchers, with their bullpen inheriting 171 base runners—33.3% of whom scored. They have recorded 32 saves and failed in 18 of their 50 save attempts. Mets relievers hold a 64.0% save percentage, contributing to 117 save situations, and have achieved 67 holds (8th in the league). They have entered games with runners on base 114 times and participated in 125 high-leverage instances.
In terms of defensive efficiency, the Mets have converted 69.8% of balls in play into outs over 8,229 innings, ranking 15th in baseball. Overall, their defensive statistics include 2,743 putouts, 936 assists, and 48 errors, yielding a fielding percentage of .987, good for 11th in MLB, while converting 80 double plays.
Kodai Senga (20-10 career record) has a FIP of 2.57, having faced 1,041 batters in the majors. He has given up 187 hits (6.7 hits per nine innings) and issued 114 walks, with an ERA of 2.61 (73 earned runs allowed) and a WHIP of 1.197. Over 251 innings, he has secured 290 strikeouts throughout his MLB career.
The Giants are averaging 4.18 runs per game (21st in MLB) with a slugging percentage of .376. They have 158 doubles, 431 runs scored, and 98 home runs this season, along with 411 RBIs. San Francisco has struck out 874 times (ranking 13th) and compiled 789 hits, while they maintain an OBP of .311 and a collective batting average of .233.
The Giants have a team WHIP of 1.270 and a FIP of 3.63. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 8.60 (873 strikeouts vs. 328 walks), and their pitching staff ranks 13th in baseball for total hits allowed, with 827. They have surrendered 88 home runs, yielding 4.08 runs per nine innings (8th in the league) and have given up a total of 412 runs this season, resulting in a team ERA of 3.60 (364 earned runs).
The San Francisco bullpen has an inherited runner scoring percentage of 34.2% out of the 117 inherited base runners. Their relievers have entered games in 114 high-leverage situations, including 72 instances with baserunners on. This year, they have faced 106 save situations, amassing 66 holds and blowing 14 saves. Their save rate is 65.0%, placing them 12th in MLB, with 323 bullpen pitchers used to date. The Giants’ bullpen has converted 26 of their 40 save opportunities.
Through 8,187 innings, the Giants boast a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (21st in professional baseball). They have recorded 76 double plays and their fielding percentage is .984 (24th in MLB), accumulating 959 assists, committing 59 errors, and achieving 2,729 putouts this season.
Landen Roupp (8-8 career record) has a 3.27 ERA and allows 8.7 hits per nine innings, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.09 and 664 opposing batters faced thus far in his career. He has allowed 55 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.415 and a FIP of 3.2, giving up 146 hits and striking out 142 batters over 151 innings pitched.
Who will dominate tonight’s MLB game against the spread or moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Prediction: Go with New York (-196)
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