NBA Finals Game 5 Overview
The 2025 NBA Finals are tied 2–2 as the Indiana Pacers head to Oklahoma City for a pivotal Game 5 showdown. Historically, the winner of Game 5 in a tied series goes on to win the championship over 80% of the time. The Thunder are a perfect 9–0 at home during the postseason and come in as strong favorites.
Latest BetMGM Odds
- Spread: Thunder -9.5 (−105), Pacers +9.5 (−110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -450, Pacers +340
- Total: Over/Under 224.5 (Both −110)
Key Matchups to Watch
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Averaging over 32 points per game in the series. His ability to control pace and get to the line has been crucial for OKC.
- Chet Holmgren: A force on the boards and protecting the rim. His Game 4 stat line (14 pts, 15 rebs) was a game-changer.
- Tyrese Haliburton: The engine behind Indiana’s offense. If he can break down OKC’s perimeter defense, the Pacers will stay competitive.
- Pacers’ Shooting: Indiana shot just 18% from deep in Game 4. They’ll need a much better night from three to pull the upset.
Betting Trends
- The Thunder are 7–2 ATS in their last nine home games.
- The Under has hit in three of the four games this series.
- Indiana is 4–1 ATS in their last five road games as underdogs.
Expert Analysis & Pick
Oklahoma City has been dominant at home all season, and with the series tied, expect them to come out with energy and intensity. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP level, and the Thunder’s interior presence is overwhelming Indiana in the paint. Unless the Pacers shoot lights out from beyond the arc, it’s hard to see them staying within the number.
h2>Final PredictionPick: Thunder -9.5 (−105 at BetMGM)
Expect OKC to cover the spread and take a 3–2 lead in the NBA Finals. The Under is also worth a look, but the main value is backing the Thunder to win comfortably at home.
Looking for more picks? Check out our full coverage at BettingEdge.ca.
