- Matchup: North Dakota State Bison vs Michigan State Spartans
- Date: Thursday, March 19, 2026
- Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
- Broadcast: TNT
- Point Spread: North Dakota State (+16)
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The North Dakota State Bison, currently holding a record of 27-7, will face off against the Michigan State Spartans, who stand at 25-7, this Thursday in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament at the KeyBank Center. The Bison are positioned as 16-point underdogs, with an over/under of 143.5 points.
In their most recent game, the North Dakota State Bison secured a 70-62 victory against North Dakota. The Bison committed 14 personal fouls compared to North Dakota’s 18 and converted 8 out of 26 attempts from beyond the arc. North Dakota excelled at the free-throw line, hitting 14 of 17 shots for an impressive 82.4%. Moreover, the Bison recorded 38 total rebounds (10 offensive) but failed to block any shots. They tallied 11 assists and recorded 8 steals during the match. Defensively, North Dakota State allowed their opponents to shoot 36.4% from the field with a total of 20 out of 55 shots made. They managed to force 7 turnovers while notching 4 steals as well. The Bison finished with a field goal percentage of 44.6% (25 of 56), sinking 10 of 23 three-point attempts.
One standout player for North Dakota State was Damari Wheeler-Thomas, who shot 50.0% from the floor, recorded 6 rebounds, and contributed 19 points on 8 of 16 shooting over 31 minutes of play.
The North Dakota State Bison enter this contest with an impressive 27-7 record. They average 10.8 turnovers per game, committing 14.7 fouls on average. The Bison collect about 36.4 rebounds per game and boast a total of 528 assists for the season, ranking 64th nationally in assists. They successfully convert 36.5% of their three-point attempts (320 of 876) and maintain a free-throw percentage of 72.5%. Scoring-wise, they average 80.7 points per game, placing them 70th in Division 1, while also shooting 46.8% from the field.
Defensively, the Bison force an average of 13.7 turnovers per game while committing 16.0 personal fouls. Opponents shoot 33.5% from beyond the arc against them, with North Dakota State ranking 66th in points per game allowed (69.6). Their defensive performance yields a shooting percentage against of 43.8% (842 of 1,924) and they allow an average of 31.6 rebounds per game, ranking 239th in terms of assists surrendered with 456 for the season.
The Michigan State Spartans recently suffered a 88-84 loss to UCLA. In terms of team rebounding, Michigan State allowed UCLA to grab 26 rebounds overall (6 offensive). Michigan State shot 48.1% from three-point range by connecting on 13 of 27 attempts, along with a free-throw accuracy of 78.9% (15 of 19 shots). UCLA, meanwhile, shot 30 of 54 from the field for a rate of 55.6%. Michigan State managed to shoot 28 of 62 (45.2%) from the field and made 11 of their 23 three-point attempts (47.8%) while going 17 for 22 at the free-throw line (77.3%). UCLA committed 21 fouls, sending the Spartans to the line for 22 attempts, while also forcing 12 turnovers with 3 steals. The Spartans recorded a total of 32 rebounds with 18 on the defensive end and 14 offensive boards.
Jeremy Fears Jr. had a notable performance for the Spartans, scoring 21 points by making 7 out of 14 shots for a field goal percentage of 50.0%, alongside 1 rebound and 13 assists over 36 minutes of play.
With a record of 25-7, the Spartans are shooting 47.1% from the field, ranking 66th in Division 1. They have accumulated 2,526 points this season (averaging 78.9 points per game) and grab 39.8 boards per game. Their ability to pass the ball secures 18.5 assists per game (6th in the nation), while their turnover rate sits at 11.5. Michigan State commits 16.3 fouls on average and has a shooting percentage of 76.3% from the charity stripe.
On the defensive front, Michigan State ranks 43rd in the country for points allowed per game, surrendering 68.4. They force opponents into 9.9 turnovers nightly and limit shooting to 41.0% from the field (36th in Division 1). Their defense yields a shooting percentage of 32.9% from three-point range (275 of 836) and allows a free-throw success rate of 75.1%. They concede 13.2 assists and 28.3 rebounds per game, ranking 166th and 1st in Division 1, respectively.
Who will come out on top in tonight’s NCAA game against the spread?
Prediction: Take North Dakota State (+16)
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