- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN
- Betting Odds: Tampa Bay (+110) Boston (-130)
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On Thursday, the Boston Red Sox (15-21) will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays (23-12) at Fenway Park. The betting line has the Rays at +110 and the Red Sox at -130, with the over/under set at 8. Starting pitchers for this contest include Jesse Scholtens and Connelly Early.
The Rays have recorded 44 doubles and have launched 30 home runs as a team. With a slugging percentage of .377, they have also accumulated 251 strikeouts while earning 114 walks. Currently, Tampa Bay averages 4.5 runs per game, placing them 15th in the league. They have accumulated 147 RBIs and 300 hits this season, holding a team batting average of .255. To date, they have scored 156 runs, contributing to a team on-base percentage of .327.
This season, the Rays boast a team ERA of 3.65, good for 5th in the league, and they have struck out 274 batters. Rays pitchers have given up 38 home runs and 144 runs, ranking 6th in the league. They have issued 114 walks, while their FIP stands at 4.12 for the year. The Rays have surrendered 264 hits (7.5 per 9 innings) and 128 earned runs, resulting in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.40 and a team WHIP of 1.20.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen has a save rate of 78.9%, entering 45 save situations and securing 15 saves while failing in 4 of those occurrences. They have inherited 41 runners this season, with 31.7% scoring. Bullpen pitchers have come into high-leverage situations 40 times and made 32 appearances with runners on base. This season, the Rays have utilized 112 relief pitchers, accumulating 26 holds, ranking them 3rd in the league.
Defensively, the Rays have converted 72.6% of balls in play to outs over 2,838 innings, placing them 3rd in Major League Baseball. They have made 946 putouts, established 275 assists, and committed 25 errors, giving them a fielding percentage of .980, ranking 28th overall. Additionally, they have completed 20 double plays.
Jesse Scholtens has thrown 115 innings, achieving 87 career strikeouts with an ERA of 4.92 (allowing 63 earned runs). His career WHIP is 1.457, allowing 129 hits (10.1 hits per nine innings) and issuing 39 walks. With a 4-11 career record, Scholtens has faced 509 batters, holding a FIP of 4.84.
The Red Sox have hit 27 home runs this season, with 140 RBIs to their name. They also have 58 doubles to show for their efforts, drawing 119 walks and scoring 145 runs. Boston holds a .318 on-base percentage along with a .240 batting average this year. They have a slugging percentage of .361, averaging 4.03 runs per game (26th in MLB), and they’ve been struck out 302 times (15th in the league), accumulating 291 hits.
Boston’s pitching staff reports a WHIP of 1.309 with a team FIP of 4.43 this season. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 8.30 (291 strikeouts against 119 walks), ranking them 17th in the league for hits allowed (296). The Red Sox have allowed 45 homers and surrender 4.43 runs per 9 innings (13th in MLB), conceding 156 runs this season with an ERA of 4.12 (145 earned runs).
In 29 save opportunities, the Red Sox have recorded 18 holds and 4 blown saves. They have had their bullpen pitchers in 11 save situations, converting 7 successfully. Boston’s inherited runner scoring rate is 31.9%, with 47 inherited runners this season. Their relievers have stepped on the mound 31 times in pressure situations, making 32 appearances with base runners, ranking 14th in the league with a save percentage of 63.6%. They have utilized 110 relievers this season.
The Boston Red Sox have executed 28 double plays and carry a fielding rate of .986, ranking 16th in professional baseball. They have logged 326 assists, committed 18 errors, and achieved 952 putouts this season. In 2,856 innings played, they maintain a defensive efficiency of 70.2% (14th in the majors).
In his career, Connelly Early has allowed 47 hits and has accumulated 60 strikeouts over 54 innings pitched. With a total of 20 earned runs against him, his WHIP stands at 1.252, and he boasts a FIP of 3.3. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.86, having faced 230 batters in his professional career. Early holds a 3-4 record with a 3.31 ERA, allowing 7.8 hits per nine innings.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or for the moneyline?
Prediction: Take Boston (-130)
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