Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista Fight Analysis, 07/11/2026 Insights UFC 329 Odds

Home » Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista Fight Analysis, 07/11/2026 Insights UFC 329 Odds

  • Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
  • UFC 329 Event
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
  • Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026

This page may include affiliate links at no extra cost to you, thanks for your support.

Cory Sandhagen is set to face Mario Bautista at UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. As the fight approaches, Sandhagen is favored at -140, while Bautista holds odds of +120.

Entering the Octagon, Cory Sandhagen boasts a record of 18 wins and 6 losses (18-6-0). The 34-year-old fighter weighs in at 135 lbs, standing at 5’11” tall, with an arm reach of 70 inches. On the other hand, Mario Bautista matches his weight at 135 lbs but stands a bit shorter at 5’9″. Bautista, aged 33, holds a record of 17-3-0 and has a reach of 69 inches. Analyzing their striking stats, Sandhagen averages 4.86 significant strikes landed per minute, while Bautista lands 5.30. In terms of accuracy, Sandhagen connects on 45% of his strikes compared to Bautista’s 48%. Defensively, Sandhagen absorbs 3.47 significant strikes per minute and successfully deflects 56% of incoming strikes, whereas Bautista absorbs 3.98 and stops 54% of strikes aimed at him.

UFC Predictions and Best Bets
UFC 329 Highlights Cory Sandhagen Mario Bautista
Opening Betting Odds -140 +120
Professional Record 18-6-0 17-3-0
Average Fight Duration 14:43 10:06
Height 5’11” 5’9″
Weight Class 135 lbs 135 lbs
Reach 70″ 69″
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.86 5.30
Striking Precision 45% 48%

In terms of grappling, Cory Sandhagen may not be as proficient, averaging 1.15 takedowns every 15 minutes, successfully completing 34% of his attempts and defending against 56% of opponent takedowns. Meanwhile, Mario Bautista achieves takedowns on 38% of his attempts, defending 55% of takedowns against him. In submission attempts, Sandhagen averages 0.2 submissions per 15 minutes, while Bautista attempts significantly more with 0.8 submissions per 3 rounds.

In his last Octagon appearance, Cory Sandhagen faced Merab Dvalishvili, ending in a unanimous decision loss in round 5. Dvalishvili connected on 243 of his 399 attempted strikes. Sandhagen managed 149 of 257 total strikes. Specifically, Dvalishvili landed 114 of 265 significant strikes, achieving a 43% accuracy rate. Sandhagen’s significant strike accuracy was 43% as well, landing 80 of 184, including 46 of 143 aimed at the head. Notably, Dvalishvili landed 69% of his significant strikes at a distance, matching Sandhagen’s range-based striking percentage.

Mario Bautista’s last fight was against Vinicius Oliveira, where he claimed victory via rear-naked choke in round 2. Oliveira recorded a 75% success rate on significant strikes landed at a distance, while Bautista achieved 40% on his distance strikes. Bautista successfully landed 55% of his significant strikes, connecting on 15 out of 27 attempts, with 10 of those aimed at the head. Oliveira managed to connect on 12 of 21 significant strikes, with 3 out of 10 focused on head strikes. Over the course of the fight, Oliveira landed 18 of 27 total strikes, while Bautista threw 49 out of 63 strikes.

Highlighted Fights on the Card

Don’t miss the matchup between Brandon Royval and Lone’er Kavanagh. Royval, with a record of 17-9-0, will step into the cage at a height of 5’9″ and a weight of 125 lbs. As a southpaw fighter, he brings in a reach of 68 inches. Kavanagh, at 5’6″ and weighing 125 lbs, boasts a record of 10-1-0 as an orthodox fighter with a reach of 67 inches. When it comes to takedowns, Royval manages 0.65 takedowns every 3 rounds, while Kavanagh achieves 1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes. Striking stats show that Royval lands 5.54 strikes per minute with a 41% accuracy, compared to Kavanagh’s 48% accuracy with 4.13 strikes landed per minute.

Another must-watch bout features Terrance McKinney going head-to-head with King Green. Green holds a record of 35-17-1 (1 NC) and stands at 5’10”, weighing 155 lbs. As an orthodox fighter, he has a reach of 71 inches. McKinney, also 5’10” and weighing 155 lbs, seeks to improve his career record of 18-8-0, with a reach of 73 inches. On the grappling front, King Green successfully defends 72% of takedowns and completes 43% of his attempts, while McKinney finishes 40% of his attempts and similarly deflects 72% of takedowns. In striking, Green absorbs 3.55 strikes per minute, landing 6.46 strikes per minute. In contrast, McKinney absorbs 3.45 strikes, delivering 6.53 strikes per minute in return.

Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s UFC matchup against the spread?

Selection: Bet on Cory Sandhagen (-140)

Some links on this page are affiliate links. If you sign up or make a purchase through them, we may earn a small commission always at no extra cost to you. Thanks for helping us keep this site running.

Pick: Cory Sandhagen (-140)
Bet Now

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Best Sportsbooks Canada

Delivers lightning-fast crypto betting, massive odds coverage, and premium gaming

Proud Partner of the NHL + Excellent live betting

 

Widest Range of Betting Options + Robust in-play with streaming

Top-Rated Betting App in Ontario with Live streaming & Cash-out