Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles
Date: Thursday, September 11, 2025
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Broadcast: MASN
Betting Odds: Pittsburgh (+172) Baltimore (-210)
The Baltimore Orioles (67-77) are set to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (64-81) at Oriole Park at Camden Yards this Thursday. The betting lines show the Pirates at +172 and the Orioles at -210, with a total run prediction of 8.5. Starting for the teams are pitchers Johan Oviedo and Cade Povich.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently averaging 3.6 runs per game, placing them 30th in the MLB rankings. They have managed to score 524 total runs while holding an on-base percentage of .306. As a team, they have recorded 219 doubles and hit 103 home runs, along with 504 runs batted in and 1,116 hits, resulting in a collective batting average of .232. Additionally, the Pirates own a slugging percentage of .350 but have been struck out 1,267 times, while earning 475 walks.
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The Pirates feature a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.72, with their pitchers accumulating a WHIP of 1.23. As a staff, they’ve allowed 138 home runs and a total of 594 runs, which ranks 9th in the league. Additionally, Pittsburgh has given up 1,145 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and 554 earned runs, resulting in a team earned run average (ERA) of 3.89, good for 13th in the MLB. The pitching squad has struck out 1,153 batters while walking 424, with a collective FIP of 3.90 this season.
Pittsburgh’s bullpen has achieved a save percentage of 60.0%, appearing in 121 save opportunities. Relief pitchers have inherited 193 base runners this season, with 36.3% of those resulting in earned runs. The Pirates’ bullpen has entered with runners on base 126 times and has been involved in 137 high-leverage situations. This season, the team has used 454 different pitchers in relief, resulting in a total of 64 holds, ranking 26th in the MLB. They have managed to secure 33 saves, failing in 22 out of 55 attempts.
Throughout the 2025 season, the Pittsburgh Pirates have tallied 3,842 putouts with 1,209 assists and 70 errors, leading to a fielding percentage of .986, ranking 14th in professional baseball. They’ve also turned 107 double plays, converting 70.7% of balls in play into outs over 11,526 innings, placing 7th in the league.
Pitcher Johan Oviedo has logged 340 innings, striking out 303 batters throughout his career. With a career record of 15-25, Oviedo possesses a FIP of 4.17, having faced a total of 1,506 batters. His earned run average stands at 4.23, allowing 160 earned runs, with a WHIP of 1.382 and 306 hits conceded (averaging 8.1 hits per nine innings), in addition to 164 walks.
On offense, the Baltimore Orioles have recorded 173 home runs and 590 RBIs this year, with 232 doubles and 416 walks, resulting in 623 total runs. The team carries an on-base percentage of .307 and a batting average of .240. The Orioles have a slugging percentage of .402, scoring an average of 4.33 runs per game, ranking 17th in the league. They have struck out 1,277 times, ranking 7th in the majors, and have accumulated 1,163 hits.
Defensively, the Baltimore pitching staff has surrendered 704 runs this season, with a team ERA of 4.63, allowing 655 earned runs. They have given up 195 home runs and allow an average of 4.97 runs per 9 innings, ranking 25th in the MLB. The Orioles’ team WHIP is 1.373, coupled with a FIP of 4.47. Their strikeout to walk ratio stands at 8.30 (1,181 strikeouts versus 463 walks), ranking 26th in total hits allowed with 1,286.
The Orioles’ relief pitchers hold a 25.8% inherited score percentage from their 194 inherited base runners. Pitchers in relief have appeared in 148 high-leverage situations and have entered with runners on base 139 times. With 150 save opportunities, they’ve secured 94 holds and have blown 19 saves. They rank 14th in MLB with a save percentage of 63.5%, dispatching 482 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season.
Over the course of 11,466 innings, the Orioles maintain a defensive efficiency of 68.5% (26th in the majors). The Baltimore Orioles have recorded 105 double plays and hold a .985 fielding percentage (19th in professional baseball) with 1,273 assists, 79 errors, and 3,822 putouts this season.
Pitcher Cade Povich has allowed 185 hits while accumulating 172 strikeouts in 175 innings pitched. With a career record of 6-16, Povich has an ERA of 5.19, allowing 9.5 hits per nine innings, and has given up 101 earned runs. His WHIP stands at 1.450, and he has a FIP of 5.1, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.49, facing 771 batters throughout his career.
Which team will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Prediction: Take Pittsburgh (+172)
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