Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs
Date: Friday, September 12, 2025
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Broadcast: Marquee
Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+126) Chicago (-152)
The Tampa Bay Rays (72-73) will face off against the Chicago Cubs (83-63) at Wrigley Field this Friday. Odds indicate the Rays at +126 while the Cubs are positioned at -152. The over/under for the matchup is set at 8.5, with Shane Baz and Matthew Boyd taking the mound.
The Rays showcase a slugging percentage of .405 and have been struck out 1,240 times, while receiving 416 walks this season. With a total of 622 RBIs and 1,232 hits, their batting average stands at .252. Tampa Bay has recorded 219 doubles and 166 home runs, along with achieving an on-base percentage (OBP) of .314. Averaging 4.5 runs per game, the Rays rank 13th in Major League Baseball.
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The Rays currently hold a team ERA of 3.87 (13th in the league) and have registered 1,271 strikeouts. They’ve allowed 187 home runs and conceded a total of 599 runs (ranking 9th in the league). Tampa Bay has 415 walks, with a FIP of 4.17 this season. Their pitchers have given up 1,134 hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) along with 552 earned runs, and their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.06, while holding a WHIP of 1.21.
The Tampa Bay bullpen has faced runners on base 101 times and made 139 appearances in high-pressure situations, securing 81 holds this season (16th in MLB). With a save percentage of 56.9%, Rays relievers have participated in 141 save opportunities, achieving 33 saves while failing to convert on 25 of 58 chances. Inheriting 149 runners throughout the season, they’ve allowed 31.5% of those players to score. The Rays have utilized 463 relief pitchers this year.
So far this season, the Tampa Bay Rays have recorded 3,853 putouts, 1,268 assists, and 69 errors, contributing to a fielding percentage of .987 which ranks 12th in professional baseball. They have successfully executed 131 double plays, converting 70.8% of balls in play into outs across 11,559 innings, placing them 6th in the league.
Baz has pitched 274 innings, amassing 281 strikeouts in his MLB career. With a career mark of 16-16, he holds a FIP of 4.20, having faced 1,147 batters. His ERA stands at 4.27 (130 earned runs), and he maintains a career WHIP of 1.225. To date, he’s allowed 240 hits (averaging 7.9 hits per nine innings) and incurred 96 walks.
The Chicago Cubs have recorded an OBP of .319 and a batting average of .248 this season. They’ve struck out 1,140 times (26th in MLB) and collected 1,230 total hits. The Cubs have hit 196 home runs and tallied 696 RBIs, with a team slugging percentage of .425 and an average of 4.88 runs per game (8th in the league). They’ve accumulated 239 doubles and have taken 500 walks, scoring a total of 713 runs.
On the pitching side, the Chicago staff has permitted 593 runs this season, with a team ERA of 3.86 and 555 earned runs allowed. They have given up 179 home runs and yield 4.12 runs per 9 innings (7th in the league). The Cubs’ WHIP stands at 1.191 and their FIP reads 4.18 for the season. Their K/BB ratio is an impressive 7.80, with 1,119 strikeouts against 370 walks. They rank 11th in the league for total hits surrendered, with 1,172.
The Cubs’ relievers have maintained a high-performance save rate, converting 38 saves from 55 opportunities, which ranks 4th in MLB with a save percentage of 69.1%. They’ve sent 474 relief pitchers to the mound this season and stepped in during high-leverage situations 146 times. In addition, their bullpen has dealt with inherited runners 131 times, achieving a score percentage of 32.8%. This season, the Cubs have also recorded 99 holds while allowing 17 blown saves.
Defensively, the Cubs have completed 113 double plays and have a .989 fielding percentage (5th in the majors). They’ve accumulated 1,225 assists, committed 57 errors, and tallied 3,885 putouts. Their defensive efficiency stands at 71.6% (3rd in baseball) over 11,655 innings played.
Boyd, sporting a career record of 58-77, has a 4.55 ERA, allowing 8.7 hits per nine innings pitched. His K/BB ratio is 3.13, having faced 4,554 hitters in his career. He’s conceded a total of 543 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.275 and a FIP of 4.5. Across his professional career, Boyd has given up 1,039 hits while accumulating 1,036 strikeouts in 1,074 innings on the mound.
Who will come out on top in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or on the moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Prediction: Take Tampa Bay (+126)
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