- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Game Date: Friday, October 16, 2026
- Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcast: TBS
- Betting Odds: Tampa Bay (-102) vs. Cleveland (-118)
This page may include affiliate links at no extra cost to you, thanks for your support.
The Cleveland Guardians (85-77) will take on the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) at Progressive Field this Friday in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS). The moneyline currently lists the Rays at -102, while the Guardians are at -118. The over/under is set at 6.5 runs. Nick Martinez and Tanner Bibee are projected to be the starting pitchers for the game.
The Tampa Bay Rays boast a slugging percentage of .402 and have recorded 1,145 strikeouts, with 514 walks throughout the season. They have tallied 700 runs batted in and amassed 1,405 hits, resulting in a batting average of .258. As a unit, the Rays have produced 230 doubles and hit 169 home runs, achieving a total of 736 runs and an on-base percentage of .326. Averaging 4.5 runs per game, they rank 12th in the league.
The Rays maintain a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.23, while their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.14. They have surrendered 201 home runs and 650 runs (6th in MLB). Allowing 1,235 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings), the Rays’ earned run average stands at 3.70 (7th in the league), with 1,322 strikeouts recorded. Their pitching unit has issued 409 walks, and their FIP is 4.04 for the year.
The bullpen has recorded a 74.4% save percentage, having entered 194 save situations this season. They have achieved 58 saves but missed on 20 out of 78 opportunities. The Rays’ bullpen has faced 192 inherited base runners, with 32.3% scoring. Throughout the season, they have called upon relievers in 522 occasions, achieving 115 holds (2nd in the league).
This season, the Tampa Bay Rays have executed 4,329 putouts, along with 1,279 assists and 92 errors, giving them a fielding percentage of .984, ranking 21st in Major League Baseball. They have completed 100 double plays, converting 72.3% of balls in play into outs across 12,987 innings on the field, placing them 1st in the majors.
Nick Martinez, with a career record of 63-65, boasts a FIP of 3.93. In his major league journey, he has faced 4,709 batters and allowed 1,106 hits (8.9 hits per 9 innings), accumulating 315 walks. He holds an ERA of 3.99 (496 earned runs) and a WHIP of 1.269, completing 1,120 innings with 779 strikeouts in his professional career.
The Cleveland Guardians have a team on-base percentage of .316 and a batting average of .239 for the season. Their strikeouts total 1,271 (26th in MLB), with 1,291 hits recorded. They have notched 162 home runs and 650 runs batted in, resulting in a slugging percentage of .380 while averaging 4.19 runs per game (24th in the league). The Guardians have hit 249 doubles and drawn 574 walks, scoring a total of 678 runs.
The Guardians’ pitching staff has allowed 667 runs this season, with an earned run average of 3.77 (602 earned runs). They have given up 175 home runs and allow 4.18 runs per 9 innings (8th in MLB). The team’s WHIP stands at 1.264 with a FIP of 3.82, featuring a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 9.60 (1,530 strikeouts to 530 walks). They are 10th in MLB for total hits allowed with 1,286.
Cleveland’s relief pitchers have a score percentage of 28.4% for inherited runners, having entered high leverage situations 178 times, with 166 instances featuring base runners. With a total of 183 save opportunities, they have secured 117 holds alongside 18 blown saves, achieving a save percentage of 71.9% (6th in MLB), utilizing 555 relievers throughout the year.
The Cleveland Guardians have completed 108 double plays this season and maintain a fielding percentage of .985 (17th in professional baseball). With 1,262 assists, 86 errors, and 4,313 putouts, they have recorded a defensive efficiency of 69.1% over 12,939 innings, ranking 23rd in the majors.
Tanner Bibee holds a career record of 41-38 with an earned run average of 3.82, permitting 8.1 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 3.22, having faced 2,837 opposing batters. He has given up 291 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.188 and a FIP of 3.80. Over his career, Bibee has allowed 617 hits while recording 638 strikeouts in 686 innings.
Which team will triumph tonight in this MLB matchup against the spread or on the moneyline?
Prediction: Back Tampa Bay (-102)
Some links on this page are affiliate links. If you sign up or make a purchase through them, we may earn a small commission always at no extra cost to you. Thanks for helping us keep this site running.
