Matchup: Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
Event Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
Betting Odds: Washington (+172), New York (-210)
The Washington Nationals (62-91) are heading to Citi Field this Saturday in a quest to defeat the New York Mets (78-74). Current betting lines indicate the Nationals at +172 and the Mets at -210, with an over/under set at 8 runs. Expected starting pitchers include Cade Cavalli and Nolan McLean.
This season, the Nationals have posted a slugging percentage of .386, with 1,253 strikeouts and 425 walks. They have accumulated 621 RBIs and 1,243 hits, resulting in a team batting average of .243. The Nationals have hit 249 doubles and connected for 143 home runs. With a total of 647 runs scored, they average 4.2 runs per game, placing them 25th in the league.
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The Nationals currently have a team ERA of 5.33, ranking 29th in MLB. Their pitching staff has struck out 1,166 batters and allowed 198 home runs, resulting in 842 runs (also 29th). They have issued 533 walks, and their FIP stands at 4.70. Washington has allowed 1,401 hits (averaging 9.4 per 9 innings) along with 796 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.19, with a collective WHIP of 1.44.
Throughout the season, Nationals pitchers have faced runners on base 151 times and have had 123 high-leverage appearances. The relievers have secured 69 holds, ranking them 25th in the league, with a 64.7% save rate from 121 save situations. Consequently, they’ve achieved 33 saves this year while failing to convert on 18 out of 51 opportunities. The bullpen has inherited 254 runners this season, with 40.2% of these runners scoring. Washington’s pitching staff includes 545 relievers throughout the current season.
The defensive efficiency for the Nationals stands at 68.1%, placing them 28th in the league. They’ve executed a total of 4,030 putouts, alongside 1,318 assists and 85 errors, yielding a fielding percentage of .984 (22nd in baseball) with 125 double plays.
Cade Cavalli, with a career record of 3-2, has a FIP of 5.73, facing 200 batters in the major leagues. He has given up 51 hits (10.6 hits per nine innings) along with 15 walks. Cavalli holds an ERA of 5.82 (28 earned runs) and a career WHIP of 1.524. Across 43 innings, he has struck out 37 batters.
The New York Mets currently bat .250 as a team with an OBP of .327. They have struck out 1,239 times (22nd in MLB) and logged 1,276 hits this season. The Mets have blasted 211 home runs, scoring 698 RBIs. Their slugging percentage rests at .429, and they score an average of 4.71 runs per game, ranking 11th in MLB. New York has also produced 247 doubles and drawn 529 walks, accumulating a total of 716 runs.
The Mets pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.337 and a FIP of 3.94 for the season. Ranking 17th for total hits allowed (1,262), New York’s staff has surrendered 668 runs with an ERA of 4.03, giving up 601 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 8.70, with a total of 1,295 strikeouts against 534 walks. They have allowed 140 home runs and an average of 4.48 runs per 9 innings (19th in MLB).
Mets’ bullpen pitchers have a 34.7% inherited scoring percentage from 242 inherited runners. They have been called to duty in 178 high-leverage situations and 162 instances with base runners. With 157 save opportunities, New York has 92 holds but has also blown 27 saves. Their save rate of 58.5% ranks them 23rd in the league, and they’ve relied on 495 relievers throughout the season. New York has faced 65 save chances, converting on 38 of them.
Throughout 12,087 innings played, the Mets maintain a defensive efficiency of 68.8% (24th in professional baseball). The team has turned 115 double plays and holds a fielding percentage of .987 (9th in MLB). This season, the Mets have achieved 1,374 assists, committed 70 errors, and accumulated a total of 4,029 putouts.
In his MLB career, Nolan McLean has given up 25 hits while striking out 40 batters in 37 innings. He has allowed just 5 earned runs, showcasing a WHIP of 0.995 and a FIP of 1.2. McLean possesses a K/BB ratio of 3.33 and has faced 143 batters so far, boasting a career record of 4-1 and a 1.21 ERA, allowing 6.0 hits per nine innings.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup, covering the spread or winning straight up?
Guy Bruhn’s Prediction: Back Washington (+172)
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