Prediction for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx, WNBA Picks, Tips, and Odds for 9/21/2025

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• Matchup: Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx
• Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
• Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• Broadcast: ESPN

The Phoenix Mercury (27-17) are set to face the Minnesota Lynx (34-10) in Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals this Sunday at Target Center. The Lynx are currently favored by 6.5 points, with the total points line established at 158.5.

In their last matchup, the Phoenix Mercury triumphed over the New York Liberty, securing a 79-73 victory which earned them a spot in the semifinals. Phoenix recorded a shooting percentage of 36.6% with 26 successful field goals out of 71 attempts, including 9 of 24 from beyond the arc. At the free throw line, the Mercury converted 18 out of 22 attempts, achieving a commendable 81.8% success rate. They also secured 39 rebounds, 8 of which were offensive, while facilitating 22 assists. On the defensive end, Phoenix managed to force 15 turnovers and registered 10 steals. The Liberty shot 33.8% from the field, hitting 23 of 68 shots, while they dished out 9 assists and had 5 steals during the game. New York collected a total of 36 rebounds, including 9 offensive boards, and recorded 4 blocks while finishing 76.9% from the charity stripe, making 20 of 26 attempts.

Key player Satou Sabally significantly impacted the last game, scoring 23 points on 6 of 14 shooting, while also securing 12 rebounds and providing 3 assists over 34 minutes on the court.

Phoenix enters this matchup with a season record of 27-17. The Mercury have successfully converted 34.0% of their three-point attempts (414 of 1,217) and boast a free throw success rate of 78.4%. Averaging 82.8 points per game (ranking 7th in the WNBA), they shoot 43.3% from the field. The team averages 12.5 turnovers and 17.8 personal fouls each game. With 34.7 rebounds per game and a total of 922 assists this season, they rank 5th in the league for assists. Defensively, the Mercury force 13.8 turnovers per game while averaging 16.4 fouls. They rank 6th in the league for assists allowed, conceding 868 assists this season. The Mercury’s defense gives up a shooting percentage of 42.7% (609 of 723) and allows 35.3 rebounds per game, while opponents shoot 32.1% from three-point range and average 80.1 points per game against them, ranking 5th in the WNBA.

In their most recent game, the Minnesota Lynx edged out the Golden State Valkyries with a close score of 75-74, concluding their first-round series. The Lynx tallied 29 rebounds (22 defensive and 7 offensive) while committing 12 turnovers and making 6 steals during the matchup. The Valkyries recorded 14 personal fouls, allowing Minnesota 10 free throw attempts, of which they converted 5 at a 50.0% rate. From three-point range, the Lynx converted 8 out of 28 shots (28.6%). Overall, Minnesota shot 46.3% from the field, completing 31 of 67 attempts, while holding the Valkyries to 28 out of 64 attempts (43.8%). Minnesota also finished strong from beyond the arc with 11 out of 22 (50.0%) and were 7 of 9 (77.8%) from the free throw line, allowing Golden State 28 total rebounds (6 offensive).

Napheesa Collier was a standout player in the match, achieving 24 points on 10 of 16 shooting (62.5%) and securing 7 rebounds, accumulating 4 assists over 39 minutes of play.

The Minnesota Lynx have an impressive season record of 34-10. Offensively, they lead the league by shooting 47.2% from the field. Minnesota has scored a total of 3,787 points this season, averaging 86.1 points per game while collecting 34.2 rebounds. They also lead in assists with 23.3 assists per game, committing 12.1 turnovers. The Lynx average 16.0 personal fouls per game and have a free throw percentage of 76.0%. Defensively, they rank 2nd in points allowed per game at 76.7, allowing an average of 18.8 assists and 33.3 rebounds, ranking 1st and 6th in the league respectively. The Lynx hold opponents to a 33.1% success rate from beyond the arc and a free throw success rate of 77.5%. Additionally, they force 14.0 turnovers per game while allowing a field goal percentage of 42.3%, placing them 2nd in the WNBA.

Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s WNBA matchup against the spread?

Prediction: Bet on Minnesota (-6.5)