Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun Analysis, 10/24/2026 Predictions UFC 333 Betting Lines

• Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun Preview
• Event: UFC 333
• Venue: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE
• Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026

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The upcoming clash features Abubakar Vagaev facing off against Jacob Malkoun at UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, 2026. According to the odds, Vagaev is favored at -165, while Malkoun is at +140.

Entering the Octagon with a record of 25-4-0, Abubakar Vagaev, aged 33, competes in the welterweight division at 170 lbs and stands 5’11” tall with a reach of 73″. On the other hand, Jacob “Mamba” Malkoun, 31 years old, weighs 185 lbs and stands 5’9″ tall, holding a record of 10-3-0. Both fighters possess a reach of 73″. In terms of their striking stats, Vagaev averages 1.80 significant strikes per minute while Malkoun boasts an output of 4.23. Vagaev connects with 38% accuracy on his significant strikes, compared to Malkoun’s impressive 56%. On defense, Vagaev absorbs 2.20 significant strikes per minute, while Malkoun takes 2.33, with Vagaev defending 60% of strikes aimed at him and Malkoun deflecting 55%.

Regarding takedown stats, Vagaev averages 4.00 takedowns over three rounds, succeeding 40% of the time and defending against 71% of his opponent’s attempts. Malkoun, on the other hand, successfully takes down his opponents 42% of the time while defending against 55%. In submission attempts, Vagaev averages 1.1 submissions per three rounds, while Malkoun attempts 0.8 every 15 minutes.

In Vagaev’s last fight, he faced Saygid Izagakhmaev, securing a victory via unanimous decision in the third round. Izagakhmaev landed 73 of 124 total strikes, while Vagaev recorded 91 of 138 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Izagakhmaev landed 33 of 83, achieving a 39% rate with 16 of his strikes directed at the head. Conversely, Vagaev landed 38% of his significant strikes, with 27 out of 70, including 16 to the head. Both fighters primarily threw their significant strikes from a distance, with Izagakhmaev achieving 69% accuracy and Vagaev 66%.

Jacob Malkoun last appeared against Gerald Meerschaert, winning by unanimous decision in the third round. Meerschaert connected on 96% of his significant strikes from a distance, while Malkoun achieved a perfect 100%. Malkoun landed 43% of his strikes, hitting 36 of 82, with 30 of those aimed at the head. Meerschaert landed 32 of 76 total strikes during the bout. In the fight’s total attempts, Meerschaert connected 53 of 100, whereas Malkoun went 54 of 103.

Additional Fights to Keep an Eye On

A notable matchup features Bolaji Oki set to compete against Daniel Santos. Oki aims for a win to improve his record of 10-4-0. The 30-year-old weighs in at 145 lbs and stands 5’10”, with an arm span of 73″. Santos, aged 31, also weighs 145 lbs and stands at 5’7″, entering the fight with a record of 14-3-0 and a reach of 67″. In grappling stats, Oki manages 1.02 takedowns per three rounds, while Santos averages 2.60 takedowns every 15 minutes. In striking, Oki lands 6.42 strikes per minute with a 45% accuracy rate, compared to Santos, who hits 5.15 strikes per minute with 40% accuracy.

Another exciting bout is Noah Gugnon versus Kody Steele. Steele comes in seeking to extend his 8-1-0 record, weighing 155 lbs at 5’9″. He has a reach of 71″. In contrast, Gugnon, who is 5’11” and also weighs 155 lbs, stands at 10-2-0. Steele successfully defends 90% of opponent takedowns and completes 25% of his own, while Gugnon averages 10% success in takedowns and successfully defends 10% against opponents. In striking exchanges, Steele delivers 6.20 strikes per minute, while Gugnon absorbs 4.44 strikes per minute, landing 3.70 in response.

Who will prevail in tonight’s UFC bout against the spread?

Prediction: Bet on Jacob Malkoun (+140)