- Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins
- Date: Thursday, June 11, 2026
- Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
- TV: MLB.TV
- Odds/Point Spread: Arizona (-152) Miami (+126)
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The Arizona Diamondbacks (34-31) are headed to LoanDepot Park on Thursday to face the Miami Marlins (31-35). The betting odds indicate the Diamondbacks are favored at -152, while the Marlins sit at +126. The over/under for this matchup is set at 9 runs. The teams will feature starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Tyler Phillips.
The Diamondbacks currently boast a slugging percentage of .390, facing 482 strikeouts and drawing 192 walks. They have amassed 272 RBIs and 518 hits throughout the season, maintaining a batting average of .241. The team has also secured 114 doubles and hit 58 home runs, accumulating 283 runs and achieving a .305 on-base percentage. On average, the Arizona Diamondbacks score 4.4 runs per game, placing them 15th in the league.
The Diamondbacks possess a team ERA of 4.14 (17th in MLB) and accumulated 461 strikeouts this season. Their pitching staff has surrendered 78 home runs and 293 runs overall (16th in MLB). They’ve issued 193 walks, yielding a FIP of 4.40 as a collective unit. Arizona’s pitchers have given up 537 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) and 265 earned runs, maintaining a K/BB ratio of 2.39 and a WHIP of 1.27.
The bullpen for the Diamondbacks has a 65.4% save rate, appearing in 67 save situations. They secured 17 saves and failed 9 out of 26 chances. With 88 inherited base runners this season, 23.9% have crossed the plate. The relief corps have entered the fray with runners on base 61 times and have had 76 high-leverage appearances. Throughout the season, Arizona has rolled out 211 relief pitchers, accumulating 40 holds (9th in MLB).
With 1,727 putouts this season, the Diamondbacks have 553 assists and 25 errors, maintaining a fielding percentage of .989, which ranks 4th in baseball. They executed 49 double plays and converted 71.7% of balls put into play into outs over 5,181 innings, placing them 6th in the league.
Merrill Kelly has pitched 1,066 innings in his career, accumulating 948 strikeouts with a career record of 70-57. His FIP stands at 3.82, facing 4,402 batters in the majors. Kelly has an earned run average of 3.87, allowing 459 earned runs and holding a WHIP of 1.214. He has given up 969 hits (8.2 hits per nine innings) along with 325 walks.
The Marlins showcase a slugging percentage of .378, averaging 4.18 runs per game (20th in the league). They have hit 102 doubles, drawn 225 walks, and secured 276 runs. With 55 home runs and 264 RBIs this season, they have struck out 549 times (14th in the league) and achieved 527 hits. Miami’s on-base percentage is .320, complementing their .242 batting average this season.
The Marlins’ pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.257 and a FIP of 3.95. They have a K/BB ratio of 8.70 (558 strikeouts versus 232 walks) and rank 6th in MLB for total hits allowed, with 497. The team has given up 62 home runs and yields an average of 4.59 runs per 9 innings (17th in baseball), with a cumulative ERA of 4.24 (273 earned runs allowed).
In 59 save situations, the Marlins have 33 holds and 9 blown saves. In 25 save opportunities, they have secured 16 saves. The bullpen’s inherited score rate is 21.3% from 75 inherited base runners. This group has entered games 60 times under high-pressure situations and 51 times with runners on base. They currently rank 16th in MLB with a 64.0% save rate, having utilized 207 relief pitchers this season.
The Miami Marlins have a defensive efficiency of 70.5% (12th in the majors) over 5,220 innings and have turned 46 double plays. Their fielding percentage stands at .980 (29th in professional baseball), while they have registered 531 assists, 46 errors, and 1,740 putouts thus far this season.
In his professional career, Tyler Phillips has conceded 147 hits while recording 116 strikeouts in 157 innings. He has allowed 62 earned runs, carrying a WHIP of 1.272 and a FIP of 3.50. His K/BB ratio sits at 2.19, facing 662 batters. With a career record of 6-3, Phillips maintains a 3.55 ERA while allowing 8.4 hits per nine innings.
Who will clinch victory in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Pick: Go with Arizona (-152)
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