- Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
- Event Date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026
- Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
- Betting Odds: Atlanta (-128) New York (+106)
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The New York Mets (45-62) are set to clash with the Atlanta Braves (62-44) at Citi Field on Wednesday. Atlanta enters the matchup favored at -128, while the Mets are positioned at +106 on the moneyline. The game’s over/under stands at 8.5, with Grant Holmes and Sean Manaea as the expected starting pitchers.
As a collective, the Atlanta Braves are averaging 4.9 runs per game, ranking 6th in Major League Baseball. They have tallied a total of 523 runs, maintaining an on-base percentage of .315. The Braves have recorded 168 doubles and hit 140 home runs this season. With 505 RBIs and 899 hits under their belt, their batting average stands at .249. Atlanta also boasts a slugging percentage of .416, with 859 strikeouts and 322 walks.
On the pitching side, the Braves have posted a team earned run average (ERA) of 3.74, placing them 7th in the league, while striking out 909 opposing batters. They have allowed 125 home runs and 427 total runs, also ranked 7th. The Braves’ pitching staff has issued 362 walks, and their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ratio is 4.17. They have permitted 821 hits, averaging 7.8 per nine innings, with 392 earned runs giving them a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.51 and a WHIP of 1.26.
This season, Braves pitchers have faced runners on base 76 times and have appeared in high-leverage situations 114 times. The bullpen has recorded 75 holds (3rd in the league) and a save success rate of 68.9%, converting 31 out of 45 opportunities. With 339 relievers utilized this season, they have inherited 108 runners, with 25.9% of them scoring. Atlanta’s defense has converted 71.2% of balls in play into outs, ranking 5th in the league, with 2,827 putouts, 869 assists, and 49 errors, holding a fielding percentage of .987 that places them 12th overall.
Grant Holmes has pitched a total of 280 innings in his MLB career, accumulating 276 strikeouts. With a win-loss record of 12-14, he holds a FIP of 3.76 and has faced 1,196 batters. His ERA stands at 3.82, having allowed 119 earned runs along with a WHIP of 1.310, yielding 255 hits (8.2 per nine innings) and 112 walks.
The New York Mets have a slugging percentage of .387 and an average of 4.17 runs per game, ranking 24th in the league. They’ve hit 132 doubles and gained 345 walks, scoring a total of 446 runs. The Mets have also belted 129 home runs with 425 RBIs, striking out 899 times (13th in MLB) and achieving 847 hits. Their on-base percentage is .307, with a season batting average of .235.
This year, the Mets’ pitching staff has given up 497 runs, maintaining an ERA of 4.18 (442 earned runs). They’ve allowed 117 home runs, averaging 4.70 runs per nine innings (19th in baseball). The team has a WHIP of 1.301 and a FIP of 4.01, with a combined strikeout-to-walk ratio of 9.20 (971 strikeouts against 377 walks). They rank 14th in the league for total hits allowed with 862.
Currently, the Mets have faced 71 save situations, earning 41 holds along with 13 blown saves. Their relievers have entered 30 times for save opportunities, securing 17 saves. New York’s inherited scoring rate stands at 28.9% for 142 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have participated in 110 high-leverage situations and 103 appearances with runners on base, ranking 24th overall in save percentage at 56.7%, with 329 relievers used this season.
Defensively, the Mets have executed 63 double plays and registered a fielding percentage of .981 (29th in MLB). With 870 assists, 71 errors, and 2,858 putouts over 8,574 innings, New York’s defensive efficiency is at 69.3%, placing them 21st in professional baseball.
Throughout his career, Sean Manaea has allowed 1,238 hits and has struck out 1,268 batters over 1,330 innings. He carries a career record of 81-71 with a 4.11 ERA, yielding 8.4 hits per nine innings and 608 earned runs, alongside a WHIP of 1.213 and a FIP of 4.1. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.38, having faced 5,573 opposing batters.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB match against the spread or on the moneyline?
Prediction: Bet on Atlanta (-128)
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