- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
- Betting Odds: Boston (-128) New York (+106)
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The Boston Red Sox (43-48) head to Citi Field on Saturday, aiming to secure a victory against the New York Mets (40-54). The moneyline is set at Boston -128 and New York +106, with a total over/under of 9 runs. Pitching duties will be handled by Brayan Bello and Freddy Peralta.
The Boston Red Sox have managed 160 doubles and 81 home runs this season. They hold a slugging percentage of .387, having struck out 750 times while drawing 272 walks. As a collective, the team scores an average of 4.1 runs per game, placing them 26th in the league. With 355 RBIs and 743 hits, their batting average stands at .244, complemented by a team on-base percentage (OBP) of .314.
The Red Sox’s pitching staff has recorded a 3.67 earned run average (ERA) this season, placing them 7th in the league, with a total of 777 strikeouts. They have allowed 94 home runs and 354 runs overall, positioning them 3rd in MLB. The team has issued 264 walks and carries a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) rate of 3.82. Boston has given up 726 hits (averaging 8.1 per 9 innings) and 328 earned runs, maintaining a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.23.
The Red Sox’s bullpen has a save percentage of 70%, entering 83 save opportunities this season. They’ve achieved 21 saves while failing to convert 9 out of 30 chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 108 base runners, with 33.3% of those scoring. This season, they have appeared 76 times in high-leverage situations and sent 279 relievers to the mound, earning 52 holds, ranking 12th in MLB.
Throughout the season, the Boston Red Sox have accumulated 2,413 putouts, 768 assists, and committed 40 errors, boasting a fielding percentage of .988, which ranks 8th in the league. They have successfully converted 70.1% of balls in play into outs during 7,239 innings, placing them 14th in MLB.
Pitcher Brayan Bello holds a career record of 41-42, with a FIP of 4.26 across 2,620 batters faced. He has allowed 622 hits (9.3 hits per nine innings) and issued 219 walks. Bello’s earned run average stands at 4.32, conceding 290 earned runs, with a WHIP of 1.392. In his professional career, he has pitched 604 innings and recorded 508 strikeouts.
The New York Mets feature a team OBP of .304 and a batting average of .235 this season. They have recorded 772 strikeouts (19th in MLB) and accumulated 742 hits with 110 home runs and 375 RBIs. The Mets are currently slugging at .383 and averaging 4.19 runs per game, positioning them 22nd in MLB. They’ve managed 116 doubles and drawn 290 walks, scoring a total of 394 runs.
This season, the Mets’ pitching staff has given up 450 runs, with a team ERA of 4.32 (402 earned runs). They have allowed 103 home runs and 4.84 runs per nine innings (19th overall). Their WHIP is 1.314, and they hold a team FIP of 4.03. The strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 9.20, with 860 strikeouts against 337 walks, ranking 17th in total hits allowed with 763 this season.
Mets relievers have an inherited runner scoring rate of 30.9% from 123 inherited runners. This year, they have appeared in 103 high-leverage situations and 92 times with runners on base. With 62 save opportunities, the Mets have achieved 34 holds and 12 blown saves, ranking 22nd in the league with a save rate of 57.1%, while deploying 290 relievers in 2026.
In 7,539 innings played, the Mets maintain a defensive efficiency of 69.2% (22nd in MLB). They have turned 52 double plays this season and hold a fielding percentage of .981 (28th overall), with 762 assists, 62 errors, and 2,513 putouts.
Freddy Peralta has allowed 797 hits in his professional career, achieving 1,251 strikeouts over 1,031 innings. With a career record of 75-49, he maintains a 3.69 ERA, permitting 7.0 hits per nine innings. Peralta has allowed a total of 423 earned runs, with a WHIP of 1.160, and a FIP of 3.6. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.14, facing 4,298 batters during his career.
Who will take home the win tonight in this MLB matchup, whether against the spread or the moneyline?
Prediction: Back Boston (-128)
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