- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcaster: Sportsnet New York
- Betting Odds: Boston Red Sox (-128), New York Mets (+106)
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This Sunday, the Boston Red Sox (44-48) will travel to Citi Field to face off against the New York Mets (40-55). The moneyline for the game shows Boston at -128, while New York is at +106. The over/under for total runs is set at 9. Pitching for the game will be Payton Tolle for the Red Sox and Zach Thornton for the Mets.
The Red Sox are hitting with a slugging percentage of .389 and have faced 760 strikeouts, accompanied by 277 walks. They have amassed 361 RBIs and 754 hits this season, presenting a team batting average of .245. With 163 doubles and 83 home runs, the Boston squad has scored a total of 378 runs, resulting in an on-base percentage of .315. On average, the Red Sox are scoring 4.1 runs per game, positioning them 26th in the league.
Boston has achieved a team earned run average of 3.65 this season, ranking 7th in the league, while striking out 780 batters. The Red Sox pitching staff has allowed 95 home runs and a total of 356 runs (3rd in MLB). They have walked 265 batters, with a FIP of 3.81 this season. Boston has permitted 736 hits (8.1 per 9 innings) and 330 earned runs. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.94, yielding a collective WHIP of 1.23.
A total of 282 relief pitchers have seen action this year, with relievers inheriting 108 base runners, of which 33.3% have scored. This season, the bullpen has recorded 54 holds (11th in MLB) and has entered 73 games with runners on. They have recorded 21 saves, although 9 of their 30 save opportunities have been blown, leading to a 70% save rate.
The Boston Red Sox have delivered 2,440 putouts, alongside 780 assists and 41 errors. Their fielding percentage stands at .987, placing them 9th in the league, having committed 60 double plays. The team converts 70.1% of balls put into play into outs during their 7,320 innings, ranking 15th in professional baseball.
Payton Tolle has pitched 96 innings, accumulating 99 strikeouts in his career. Tolle holds a career record of 5-7, with a FIP of 3.59. He has faced 400 opposing batters, recording a 3.65 ERA (39 earned runs) and a WHIP of 1.164. He has surrendered 80 hits (7.5 hits per 9 innings) alongside 32 walks.
The Mets, on the other hand, have a slugging percentage of .384 and average 4.17 runs per game (23rd in MLB). They have achieved 117 doubles and drawn 291 walks, scoring 396 runs. With 111 home runs and 377 RBIs, the Mets have also faced 775 strikeouts (19th in the league), while recording 752 hits. Their team OBP is .304, with a batting average of .235 this season.
New York’s pitching staff maintains a WHIP of 1.319 and a FIP of 4.04. They report a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 9.20 (870 strikeouts against 342 walks). Ranking 18th in total hits allowed with 774, the Mets have yielded 105 home runs and allow 4.85 runs per 9 innings (20th in MLB). Overall, their team ERA is 4.32, with 406 earned runs permitted.
This season, the Mets have faced 62 save situations, recording 34 holds and 12 blown saves. Their relievers have had 28 save opportunities, converting 16 saves. The bullpen’s inherited run scoring percentage is 30.2% from 126 inherited base runners. They have entered high-leverage situations 103 times; their save percentage stands at 57.1% this season, with 294 relief pitchers utilized.
The New York Mets report 52 double plays generated and maintain a fielding percentage of .981 (28th in professional baseball). They have registered 772 assists, 63 errors, and achieved 2,540 putouts this year. Their defensive efficiency is 69.1% over their 7,620 innings played, placing them 24th in the league.
As for Thornton, he has permitted 9 hits while recording 10 strikeouts in 10 innings this season. With a career record of 0-1, his ERA stands at 4.46, allowing 8.0 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered 5 earned runs, maintaining a WHIP of 1.188 and a FIP of 4.4. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.33, having faced 42 hitters.
Who will claim victory in tonight’s MLB game, whether against the spread or on the moneyline?
Expert Prediction: Bet on Boston (-128)
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