Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales Prediction, 09/12/2026 Odds for Noche UFC 4

Home » Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales Prediction, 09/12/2026 Odds for Noche UFC 4

  • Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales
  • Noche UFC 4
  • Accor Arena in Paris, France
  • Saturday, September 12, 2026

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Brandon Moreno is set to face off against Joseph Morales at Noche UFC 4 on Saturday, September 12, 2026. The betting odds favor Moreno at +100, while Morales comes in at -120.

Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno enters the Octagon boasting a professional record of 23 wins, 10 losses, and 2 draws. At 32 years old, he weighs in at 125 pounds and stands 5’7″ tall, with a reach of 70 inches. His opponent, Joseph “Bopo” Morales, measures 5’6″ and weighs the same 125 pounds, holding a record of 15 wins and 2 losses. Both fighters, aged 32, bring unique styles to the ring, with Morales having a reach of 69 inches. In terms of striking statistics, Moreno lands an impressive 3.84 significant strikes per minute compared to Morales’s 2.00. Moreno has an accuracy rate of 44% on significant strikes, while Morales boasts 40%. Defensively, Moreno absorbs 3.64 significant strikes per minute, whereas Morales allows 2.05. Moreno effectively defends against 59% of incoming strikes, and Morales counters 57% of strikes aimed at him.

UFC Predictions for Brandon Moreno's Upcoming Fight
Noche UFC 4 Brandon Moreno Joseph Morales
Opening Odds +100 -120
Record 23-10-2 15-2-0
Average Fight Time 17:03 7:54
Height 5’7″ 5’6″
Weight 125 lbs 125 lbs
Reach 70″ 69″
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.84 2.00
Striking Accuracy 44% 40%

In wrestling exchanges, Brandon Moreno shows his prowess by executing takedowns 1.36 times every 15 minutes. He successfully completes 39% of his takedown attempts and defends against 65% of attempts from opponents. On the other hand, Morales successfully secures takedowns 42% of the time but defends only 26% of attempts against him. In terms of submission attempts, Moreno is less aggressive, going for 0.4 submissions every 3 rounds, while Morales is more active with 3.0 attempts per 15 minutes.

In his last match, Brandon Moreno faced Lone’er Kavanagh but was defeated via unanimous decision after 5 rounds. Kavanagh landed 136 out of 245 total strikes, while Moreno managed to connect on 134 of 229 strikes. Significant strikes tallied for Kavanagh were 97 of 205, achieving an accuracy of 47%, with notable head strikes numbering 60 out of 160. Moreno’s significant strikes stood at 79 of 168, yielding a 47% accuracy rate, with 51 of 133 aimed at the head. Most of the significant strikes landed, 94% for Kavanagh and 87% for Moreno, occurred at a distance.

Joseph Morales’s last fight was against Matt Schnell, where he secured victory via a guillotine choke in the first round. Schnell landed all of his significant strikes at a distance, achieving a 100% rate, while Morales connected on 40% of his significant strike attempts from distance. Morales successfully landed 5 of 11 of his total significant strikes, including 4 aimed at the head. Schnell achieved 4 of 11 significant strikes, landing 1 of 8 directed at the head. Total strikes attempted recorded Schnell landing 5 of 12 and Morales at 12 of 18.

Must-Watch Fights on the Card

Don’t miss the intriguing matchup featuring Tommy McMillen against Marwan Rahiki. McMillen enters unbeaten at 11-0-0 and at 28 years old, weighs 145 pounds and stands 6’0″ tall, with a reach of 74″. Rahiki, measuring 5’8″ and also at 145 pounds, brings a perfect record of 9-0-0. McMillen averages 0.50 takedowns per 3 rounds, while Rahiki averages 0.90 takedowns every 15 minutes. Striking-wise, McMillen lands an exceptional 13.54 strikes per minute with 50% accuracy, while Rahiki connects on 52% of his strikes at 7.75 per minute.

Another exciting bout features Curtis Blaydes going head-to-head with Waldo Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta, at 34 years old, weighs in at 260 pounds, standing 6’4″ tall with a reach of 78″. Blaydes also stands at 6’4″, weighing 265 pounds, with a record of 19-6-0 (1 NC). In takedown statistics, Cortes Acosta defends against 73% of takedown attempts while securing takedowns 50% of the time. Blaydes completes 47% of his takedowns while defending against 35%. In striking, Cortes Acosta absorbs 3.63 strikes per minute and lands 5.34, while Blaydes allows 2.76 strikes and delivers 4.18 per minute.

Which fighter will emerge victorious in tonight’s highly anticipated UFC matchup?

Prediction: Bet on Joseph Morales (-120)

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Pick: Joseph Morales (-120)
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