- Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins
- Game Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Venue: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
- Broadcast: MLB.TV
- Betting Odds: Chicago (-144) Miami (+120)
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On Saturday, the Miami Marlins (71-70) will face off against the Chicago Cubs (79-62) at LoanDepot Park. The Cubs are favored at a moneyline of -144, while the Marlins sit at +120. The total runs line is set at 8.5, with expected starters being Clay Holmes and Ryan Gusto.
The Cubs have hit 238 doubles and launched 198 home runs this season. Currently, Chicago is batting with a slugging percentage of .431 and has struck out 1,195 times, drawing 592 walks. Averaging 5.3 runs per game places the Cubs first in the league, with 711 RBIs and 1,220 hits, yielding a batting average of .251. Their on-base percentage stands at .339, with 753 runs scored.
Chicago’s pitching staff boasts a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.58 and holds a WHIP of 1.26. They’ve surrendered 213 home runs and a total of 620 runs (13th in MLB). With 1,168 hits allowed (8.3 per 9 innings) and 586 earned runs, the Cubs feature a team ERA of 4.18 (17th in baseball), while striking out 1,092 batters. They have walked 423 opponents, with a collective FIP of 4.70 this season.
The Cubs’ relief pitchers have saved 55.6% of their chances, accumulating 30 saves out of 54 opportunities. Their bullpen has inherited 192 runners this season, with 31.8% crossing the plate. Cubs relievers have come in with runners on base 138 times and have made 134 high-leverage appearances. So far this season, Chicago has utilized 453 relief pitchers, securing 50 holds (30th in MLB).
In their 11,346 innings played, the Cubs have converted 71.9% of balls in play into outs, ranking them 3rd overall in professional baseball. The team has recorded 3,782 putouts, 1,334 assists, and 52 errors, achieving a .990 fielding percentage, which leads the league. They’ve also turned 107 double plays.
Clay Holmes, with a career record of 38-32, has a FIP of 3.48 after facing 2,279 hitters in the majors. He’s given up 456 hits (7.7 per nine innings) and issued 228 walks. His ERA stands at 3.54 with 209 earned runs allowed and a WHIP of 1.286. Over 532 innings, Holmes has accumulated 507 strikeouts.
The Miami Marlins have a slugging percentage of .399 and average 4.36 runs per game (20th in the league). They’ve accumulated 217 doubles, walked 484 times, and scored 615 runs. With 144 home runs this season and 586 RBIs, they have struck out 1,160 times (17th in MLB) and amassed 1,162 hits. The Marlins maintain an on-base percentage of .326 and a batting average of .248.
Miami’s pitching staff holds a team WHIP of 1.254 and a FIP of 4.05. They currently have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.30 (1,142 strikeouts vs. 474 walks), ranking 5th in total hits allowed with 1,077. They’ve conceded 141 home runs and average 4.37 runs per 9 innings (12th in the league), yielding 601 runs this season with an overall ERA of 3.96 (544 earned runs).
The Marlins have faced 133 save opportunities, successfully recording 81 holds but suffering 19 blown saves. Miami’s bullpen has responded to 50 save chances, securing 31 saves. They have allowed 23.9% of inherited runners to score out of 176 opportunities. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound in 136 high-leverage situations and made 125 appearances with runners on base, holding a 62.0% save percentage (17th in MLB), and employed 459 relievers this season.
In 11,139 innings, the Marlins boast a defensive efficiency of 70.9% (9th in MLB). They’ve turned 101 double plays while maintaining a fielding percentage of .982 (29th in MLB). Throughout the season, Miami has 1,176 assists, 90 errors, and 3,713 putouts.
In his MLB journey, Ryan Gusto has allowed 184 hits and achieved 154 strikeouts over 168 innings pitched. He’s conceded 93 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.425 and a FIP of 4.9, maintaining a K/BB ratio of 2.75 against 751 batters. Gusto holds a career record of 8-10 with an ERA of 4.97, allowing an average of 9.8 hits per nine innings.
Who do you think will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or on the moneyline?
Prediction: Pick Miami (+120)
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