- Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Monday, October 12, 2026
- Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
- Broadcast: TBS
- Betting Odds: Cleveland (+149) Tampa Bay (-180)
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The Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) are set to face the Cleveland Guardians (85-77) at Tropicana Field on Monday for Game 1 of the AL Championship Series. The moneyline for this matchup displays Cleveland at +149, while Tampa Bay comes in at -180. The over/under for runs has been established at 7. Expected starters include Foster Griffin and Drew Rasmussen.
The Guardians are currently batting .380 and have recorded 1,271 strikeouts, paired with 574 walks. This season, they have amassed 650 RBIs and racked up 1,291 hits, showcasing a team batting average of .239. Cleveland has hit 249 doubles and launched 162 home runs, scoring a total of 678 runs with an on-base percentage of .316. Averaging 4.2 runs per game, the Guardians rank 24th in MLB.
The Guardians hold a commendable team earned run average of 3.77 this year (ranking 8th in the league), striking out 1,530 batters so far. Guardians pitchers have given up 175 home runs and a total of 667 runs (also 8th in the league). They have walked 530 batters, with a FIP of 3.82 across the season. Cleveland has conceded 1,286 hits (averaging 8.1 per 9 innings) alongside 602 earned runs. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 2.89, with a collective WHIP of 1.26.
The Guardians’ bullpen has a save percentage of 71.9% and has appeared in 183 save situations this season, earning 46 saves while blowing 18 chances. With 261 inherited runners, 28.4% have crossed the plate. Cleveland’s relief pitchers have faced runners in 166 situations and made 178 high-leverage appearances, utilizing a total of 555 relievers which resulted in 117 holds (ranked 1st in the league).
Defensively, the Guardians have accumulated 4,313 putouts, 1,262 assists, and 86 errors, leading to a fielding percentage of .985, placing them 17th overall. They have successfully turned 108 double plays and converted 69.1% of balls in play into outs over 12,939 innings, ranking 23rd.
Foster Griffin has pitched 137 innings in his MLB career, achieving 121 strikeouts with a 3.28 ERA (allowing 50 earned runs). His WHIP stands at 1.101, having surrendered 116 hits (7.6 hits per 9 innings) and issued 35 walks. Griffin holds a career record of 13-3 with a FIP of 3.23 against 562 opposing batters.
The Tampa Bay Rays boast an on-base percentage of .326 and a batting average of .258 this season. They have 1,145 strikeouts (30th in MLB) with a total of 1,405 hits, including 169 home runs, accruing 700 RBIs. Their slugging percentage is .402, averaging 4.54 runs per game, ranking 12th in MLB. Additionally, they’ve hit 230 doubles, drawn 514 walks, and scored a total of 736 runs.
Tampa Bay has a team WHIP of 1.139 and a FIP of 4.04 for the season, ranking 4th in MLB for total hits allowed with 1,235. Their pitching staff has given up 650 runs, with a team ERA of 3.70 (594 earned runs). The strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 8.20 (1,322 strikeouts versus 409 walks) and they’ve permitted 201 home runs, averaging 4.05 runs given up per 9 innings (6th in MLB).
The Rays’ relief pitchers have inherited 32.3% of 192 runners. They have come in 163 times in high-leverage situations, with 134 of those involving base runners. In 194 save opportunities, they’ve recorded 115 holds with 20 blown saves, ranking 4th in baseball with a save rate of 74.4%, assigning 522 relievers throughout the season.
Defensively, the Rays have a 72.3% defensive efficiency rating (1st in major league baseball) over 12,987 innings. They’ve turned 100 double plays and maintain a .984 fielding percentage (21st in MLB). Tampa Bay has compiled 1,279 assists, 92 errors, and 4,329 putouts this season.
So far in his career, Drew Rasmussen has allowed 497 hits while amassing 602 strikeouts across 632 innings. With a 46-22 win-loss record, Rasmussen holds a 2.83 ERA and permits 7.1 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 199 earned runs, has a WHIP of 1.025, and a FIP of 2.8. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.99, facing 2,509 opponents to date.
Which team will come out on top in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or the moneyline?
Recommendation: Bet on Tampa Bay (-180)
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