- Matchup: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
- Scheduled Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026
- Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
- Betting Lines: Miami (+132) New York (-160)
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The New York Mets (45-62) will be facing off against the Miami Marlins (54-54) at Citi Field on Thursday. The odds for this matchup see Miami listed at +132, while New York is at -160. The total runs over/under for this game is set at 9. Starting pitchers for the contest will be Eury Perez and Nolan McLean.
The Miami Marlins are averaging 4.4 runs per game, ranking them 17th in the league. With a total of 473 runs and an on-base percentage of .326, the Marlins have produced 178 doubles and hit 110 home runs this season. They boast 454 runs batted in and have amassed 900 hits, sporting a team batting average of .251. Miami’s slugging percentage stands at .406, with 884 strikeouts and 360 walks recorded thus far.
The Marlins’ pitching staff has a K/BB ratio of 2.46 and holds a WHIP of 1.25. They’ve allowed 109 home runs and a total of 469 runs (ranking them 11th in MLB). The team has surrendered 822 hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and 429 earned runs, resulting in a collective ERA of 4.07 (10th in the league) with 903 strikeouts recorded. The unit has issued 367 walks this season, while their FIP is calculated at 4.05.
In save situations, the Marlins bullpen has a success rate of 61.5%, entering 103 opportunities and securing 24 saves, although 15 were blown. They’ve inherited 136 runners this season, converting 22.1% into runs. Marlins relievers have appeared in 346 games, recording 62 holds (10th in MLB).
With a defensive efficiency of 70.6%, the Marlins rank 11th in the league, having achieved 2,847 putouts, 894 assists, and 70 errors. Their fielding percentage is .982, placing them 26th in professional baseball while also turning 81 double plays.
Eury Perez has pitched a total of 284 innings, tallying 319 strikeouts in his MLB tenure. He holds an ERA of 3.67 (116 earned runs conceded) and a WHIP of 1.101, allowing 212 hits (6.7 per 9 innings) with 101 walks throughout his career. Perez’s record stands at 17-20, with a FIP at 3.62 after facing 1,158 batters to date.
The New York Mets have achieved an on-base percentage of .307 and a batting average of .235 this season. They’ve struck out 899 times (fifteenth in baseball) while collecting 847 hits. The Mets have launched 129 home runs and earned 425 runs batted in, with a team slugging percentage of .387, averaging 4.17 runs per game (25th in the league). They have 132 doubles, 345 walks, and a total of 446 runs scored.
This season, the Mets’ WHIP stands at 1.301 and their team FIP is 4.02, ranking 11th in total hits allowed with 862. They have given up 497 runs, posting an ERA of 4.18 (442 earned runs allowed). Their K/BB ratio is 9.20, with 971 strikeouts compared to 377 walks, and they’ve permitted 117 home runs while allowing 4.70 runs per 9 innings (19th in the league).
The Mets have participated in 71 save situations, achieving 41 holds and 13 blown saves. Their relievers have been called into 30 save chances, successfully converting 17 saves. With a 28.9% inherited score rate from 142 inherited base runners, Mets bullpen pitchers have faced high leverage in 110 appearances and had runners on base 103 times. They rank 25th in the league with a save conversion rate of 56.7%, employing 329 relief pitchers this year.
Over 8,574 innings this season, the Mets hold a defensive efficiency of 69.3% (20th in major league baseball). They’ve executed 63 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .981 (28th in professional baseball), having made 870 assists, 71 errors, and recorded 2,858 putouts up to this point.
Nolan McLean, with a career record of 12-8, shows a 2.96 ERA, yielding 6.7 hits per 9 innings, and maintaining a K/BB ratio of 3.37. He has encountered 684 opposing batters, allowing 55 earned runs, a WHIP of 1.095, and a FIP of 2.9. Across his professional career, McLean has allowed 124 hits and notched 199 strikeouts over 167 innings.
Who will secure victory in tonight’s MLB contest against the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Back New York (-160)
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