- Matchup: Missouri State Bears vs. SMU Mustangs
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
- Broadcast: ACC Network
- Betting Odds: Mustangs favored by 35.5 points
- Total Points (Over/Under): 57.5
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The Missouri State Bears (1-2) are set to face the SMU Mustangs (2-1) at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday, September 26, 2026. SMU opens this contest as a substantial 35.5-point favorite, with an over/under set at 57.5 points.
Currently, the Missouri State Bears, holding a 1-2 record, are coming off a tough match against the Marshall Thundering Herd, where they suffered a narrow defeat with a score of 30-24. Throughout that game, they executed 65 plays, accumulating a total of 506 yards. The Bears’ ground game produced 186 yards over 36 carries, resulting in an impressive average of 5.2 yards per carry. Conversely, their defense allowed 267 rushing yards on 45 attempts, averaging 5.9 yards per rush. They also permitted 17 completions out of 26 attempts for 197 yards, reflecting a completion rate of 65.4%.
In terms of offensive performance, the Missouri State Bears are averaging 24.0 points per game. They have recorded 157.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 80th in Division 1. This season, they totalled 1,142 yards and have scored 3 touchdowns through the air along with 7 rushing touchdowns. The team has achieved 55 first downs, while incurring 30 penalties totaling 218 yards. They have also turned over the ball 3 times.
Defensively, the Bears have allowed 571 passing yards, ranking them 60th in college football. They give up an average of 190.3 passing yards per game with a completion percentage against of 59.6%. Overall, they’re surrendering 397.3 yards per game, placing them at 107th nationally. So far this season, they have allowed 6 touchdowns through passing and 5 via rushing. Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per rush, totaling 207.0 rushing yards per game, which adds up to 621 yards allowed on the ground in 3 games. The Bears rank 117th in terms of points allowed, conceding 31.3 points per contest.
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The SMU Mustangs come into this matchup with a 2-1 record. Their most recent game ended in a 41-31 defeat to the Louisville Cardinals. In that contest, SMU allowed 37 rushing attempts for 265 yards (7.2 yards per rush). The Mustangs’ secondary permitted a completion rate of 60.9%, giving up 177 yards on 14 completions out of 23 attempts. Overall, they tallied 479 yards and ran 80 plays at an average of 6.0 yards per play. The Mustangs recorded 257 yards on the ground over 45 carries, averaging 5.7 yards per rush.
On the scoring front, the Mustangs rank 41st in Division 1, averaging 38.0 points per game. SMU’s offense generates an impressive 537.0 yards per game, placing them 5th nationally. They have committed 20 penalties for 184 yards, ranking 66th in the country regarding self-sabotage. They’ve thrown 4 interceptions and lost 3 fumbles, while securing 70 first downs. Thus far, the Mustangs have thrown for 1,106 yards, averaging 368.7 passing yards per contest, putting them 2nd in the nation. They also average 168.3 rushing yards, totaling 505 rushing yards this season.
Defensively, the Mustangs give up 25.0 points per game, ranking them 90th in the nation. They have allowed 526 rushing yards (about 175.3 yards per game) and 6 rushing touchdowns this season. Through the air, they have conceded 4 touchdowns along with an average of 157.7 passing yards per game, positioning them 25th in college football. The Mustangs have participated in 188 plays on defense, ranking 55th nationally while forcing 2 fumbles and intercepting 1 pass this year, overall yielding 75 points.
Who will prevail in this Bears vs. Mustangs college football showdown against the spread?
My Prediction: Bet on the Mustangs -35.5
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