Morgan State Bears vs UMBC Retrievers Projection, 11/12/2026 College Basketball Picks, Top Bets & Odds

Home » Morgan State Bears vs UMBC Retrievers Projection, 11/12/2026 College Basketball Picks, Top Bets & Odds
 

  • Matchup: Morgan State Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers
  • Date: Thursday, November 12, 2026
  • Venue: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD
  • Broadcast: ESPN+

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The UMBC Retrievers (1-2) are set to challenge the undefeated Morgan State Bears (3-0) at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena this Thursday.

College Basketball Picks: Devin Ceaser UMBC Predictions, Best Bets, Odds

In their previous matchup, the Morgan State Bears triumphed over Niagara with a score of 73-67. Morgan State concluded the game with a field goal percentage of 33.3% (21 out of 63) and successfully made 8 of their 21 attempts from beyond the arc. At the free-throw line, they excelled, converting 23 out of 27, giving them an impressive rate of 85.2%. On the boards, they gathered 42 rebounds, including 15 offensive. Additionally, Morgan State recorded 7 assists, forced their opponent into 14 turnovers, and amassed 10 steals. Defensively, they allowed Niagara to shoot 34.0% (18 of 53) and provided them with 13 assists while the opposition made 7 steals. Niagara managed to retrieve 29 rebounds (7 offensive, 22 defensive) but did not record any blocks. They finished with a free-throw shooting percentage of 70.0%, making 21 out of 30 attempts, and they drained 10 of 29 attempts from three-point range. The Bears were called for 25 fouls, while Niagara had 22 fouls.

Keith Richard was a standout player in this contest, scoring 22 points on 5 of 13 shooting. He logged 38 minutes of playing time and grabbed 4 rebounds while also contributing 1 assist.

Morgan State enters this game boasting a perfect 3-0 record this season, averaging 90.3 points per game (76th in Division I) on an impressive shooting percentage of 44.8%. The Bears are hitting 38.1% from three-point range (32 of 84) and 68.1% from the free-throw line. Collectively, Morgan State averages 52.0 rebounds per game and has tallied 47 assists throughout the season, ranking them 57th in the nation for assists. However, they also average 14.7 turnovers and commit 20.7 fouls per game.

Defensively, the Bears force 15.7 turnovers each game and draw 19.7 fouls. They hold opponents to a 24.6% shooting percentage from three-point range and rank 49th in the nation for points allowed per game (59.0). Morgan State has limited opponents to a shooting percentage of 29.1% (55 of 189) and surrenders an average of 35.3 rebounds per game. They currently rank 122nd in Division I for assists allowed, giving up 25 this season.

In their last outing, the UMBC Retrievers secured a commanding 91-61 victory against McDaniel. They accumulated 38 defensive rebounds and 15 offensive boards for a total of 53 rebounds in the game. They had 10 turnovers and achieved 8 steals. McDaniel was called for 13 fouls during the match, allowing UMBC 11 free-throw attempts, of which they converted 10 for a success rate of 90.9%. From long distance, UMBC converted 15 out of 47 attempts (31.9%) and finished the game with a shooting percentage of 42.3% (33 of 78). Defensively, UMBC allowed McDaniel to make 25 of 68 attempts from the floor, resulting in a shooting percentage of 36.8%. McDaniel struggled from beyond the arc, hitting only 25.9% of their three-point shots (7 of 27) and went 4 for 6 at the free-throw line (66.7%). In total, UMBC permitted McDaniel 29 rebounds (3 on the offensive end).

Devin Ceaser was pivotal for the Retrievers, connecting on 6 of 12 shots for a 50.0% shooting rate, contributing 1 rebound, and scoring 17 points in 23 minutes on the court, while also notching 2 assists.

Currently, UMBC holds a 1-2 record this season. The Retrievers average 17.0 personal fouls per game and boast an 85.1% free-throw percentage. They achieve a modest 14.0 assists per game (ranked 223rd nationally) and have 13.7 turnovers per game. Overall, UMBC has scored 225 points this season (75.0 per game) and grabs 42.0 rebounds per game. Offensively, the Retrievers are shooting 39.3% from the field, ranking 310th nationwide.

On the defensive end, UMBC is ranked 252nd in points surrendered per game, allowing 77.0. They force 12.3 turnovers each game and have allowed a shooting percentage of 40.4% from the field (163rd in college). The Retrievers’ defense permits 31.0% shooting from three-point range (27 of 87), while opposing teams hit 73.3% of their free-throws. They average giving up 15.0 assists and 42.0 total rebounds per game, which ranks 269th and 334th respectively.

Which team will prevail in tonight’s NCAA matchup against the spread?

Prediction: Bet on UMBC and the under on total points

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Pick: UMBC Retrievers and the under on total points
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