- Matchup: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
- Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
- Broadcast: TBS
- Betting Odds: New York (+113) Tampa Bay (-136)
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On Saturday, the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) will face off against the New York Yankees (93-68) in Game 1 of the ALDS at Tropicana Field. The current odds show New York at +113 and Tampa Bay at -136, with an over/under set at 7. Expected starting pitchers include Gerrit Cole for New York and Drew Rasmussen for Tampa Bay.
The Yankees have notched up 224 doubles and hit 223 home runs as a collective unit. With a slugging percentage of .409, New York has struck out 1,480 times and drawn 572 walks. The team is averaging 4.6 runs per game, placing them 8th in the league. They have amassed 706 RBIs and totaled 1,250 hits with a batting average of .235, contributing to a season tally of 739 runs and a .311 on-base percentage.
The Yankees boast a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.97 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.17. This season, Yankees pitchers have allowed 165 home runs and 601 runs total, ranking 2nd in the MLB. They have surrendered 1,204 hits (7.5 hits per 9 innings) along with 519 earned runs. The Yankees currently hold a team ERA of 3.24, the best in the league, while striking out 1,450 batters. Their staff has issued 488 walks, and their FIP stands at 3.71 for the year.
The Yankees bullpen has a save percentage of 61.6% and has faced 162 situations requiring a save. They’ve converted 45 of 73 opportunities but have blown 28 saves. With 271 inherited runners this season, 22.1% of them have scored. Yankees relief pitchers have entered 190 games with runners on base, including 175 high leverage situations. This season, a total of 532 relievers have taken the mound for the Yankees, and the bullpen has secured 86 holds (15th in MLB).
Out of 12,972 innings pitched, the Yankees have turned 71.1% of balls in play into outs, ranking them 7th in the league. They have recorded 4,324 putouts, 1,395 assists, and made 96 errors this year. Their fielding percentage is .983, placing them 22nd in the MLB, with 123 double plays completed.
Gerrit Cole has pitched for 2,081 innings in his career, accumulating 2,382 strikeouts. With a 163-89 career record, Cole’s FIP is 3.16, having faced 8,380 batters in the majors. His ERA stands at 3.20 (741 earned runs), and he has a WHIP of 1.089, allowing 1,742 hits (7.5 hits per nine innings) with 525 walks.
The Rays possess a slugging percentage of .402, averaging 4.54 runs per game, placing them 12th in the MLB. They’ve recorded 230 doubles, walked 514 times, and scored 736 runs. Tampa Bay has hit 169 home runs and accumulated 700 RBIs so far. They’ve struck out 1,145 times (ranked 30th in baseball) and registered 1,405 hits, maintaining a team OBP of .326 and a batting average of .258.
With a WHIP of 1.139 and a FIP of 4.04, the Rays pitching staff currently has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.20 (1,322 strikeouts vs 409 walks). They rank 4th overall in total hits allowed with 1,235. The team has conceded 201 home runs and allows an average of 4.05 runs per 9 innings (6th in MLB), having surrendered 650 runs and posting a team ERA of 3.70 (594 earned runs).
Tampa Bay’s bullpen has an inherited scoring rate of 32.3% from 192 inherited runners. Their relievers have been summoned in 163 high leverage situations and 134 with runners on base. This season, with 194 save chances, the Rays have recorded 115 holds and blown 20 saves. They currently rank 4th in the league with a 74.4% save percentage, using 522 relief pitchers this season.
The Rays have turned 100 double plays with a .984 fielding percentage (21st in the league). They’ve made 1,279 assists, committed 92 errors, and achieved 4,329 putouts. Over 12,987 innings, their defensive efficiency sits at 72.3%, leading the majors.
In his MLB career, Drew Rasmussen has allowed 497 hits while striking out 602 batters over 632 innings pitched. With a record of 46-22, Rasmussen boasts a 2.83 ERA, allowing 7.1 hits per nine innings, and 199 earned runs. His WHIP is at 1.025 and FIP at 2.8, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.99 after facing 2,509 batters throughout his career.
Who will prevail in tonight’s MLB showdown on the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Choose New York (+113)
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