- Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
- Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026
- Location: Truist Park, Cumberland, GA
- TV Broadcast: NBC
- Betting Odds: Philadelphia (-118), Atlanta (-102)
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The thrilling matchup at Truist Park features the Atlanta Braves (94-68) facing off against the Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) in Game 3 of their NL Wild Card series on Thursday. With the Phillies favored at -118 and the Braves at -102, betting enthusiasts have their eyes on a total set at 7.5. Anticipated to take the mound are pitchers Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Grant Holmes for the Braves.
This season, the Phillies have posted a slugging percentage of .395 while accumulating 1,318 strikeouts and drawing 529 walks. They’ve scored 691 RBIs and recorded 1,301 hits, with a batting average of .240. The team has achieved 246 doubles and 182 home runs, giving them a total of 713 runs and an on-base percentage (OBP) of .312. Philadelphia averages 4.4 runs per game, ranking 19th in the league.
The Phillies’ collective earned run average (ERA) stands at 4.04 this season (11th in MLB), with pitchers striking out 1,577 batters. They have allowed 191 home runs and 698 runs this year, ranking 11th in the league. The pitching staff has walked 484 batters, generating a team FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.79. Philadelphia has given up 1,366 hits (averaging 8.5 hits per 9 innings) along with 646 earned runs, compiling a K/BB ratio of 3.26 and a cumulative WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.29.
The bullpen for the Phillies has a save percentage of 64.6%, with 140 save opportunities. They have secured 42 saves but missed on 23 from 65 chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 171 runners this year, with 38.6% of those scoring. The bullpen has entered 122 games with runners on base and 158 in critical situations, utilizing 531 relievers throughout the season. They have achieved 73 holds, placing them 26th in the league.
Throughout the season, the Phillies have recorded 4,315 putouts, 1,337 assists, and made 80 errors, leading to a fielding percentage of .986—ranking 14th in MLB. They’ve converted 67.8% of balls put in play into outs over 12,945 innings, positioning them 28th in the league for defensive efficiency.
Pitcher Aaron Nola has logged 1,890 innings over his MLB career, amassing 2,053 strikeouts. He holds a 3.91 ERA (821 earned runs) with a WHIP of 1.168, allowing 1,699 hits (8.1 hits per nine innings) and issuing 508 walks. With a career record of 116-101, Nola has faced 7,783 batters, leading to a FIP of 3.85.
The Atlanta Braves have totaled 204 home runs and 711 RBIs this season, with 251 doubles, 465 walks, and a score of 742 runs. The team’s OBP is .309 and their batting average resides at .246, coupled with a slugging percentage of .409. The Braves are averaging 4.58 runs per game, placing them 9th in MLB. They’ve struck out 1,310 times (21st in the league) and recorded 1,348 hits.
Atlanta’s pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.243 and FIP of 4.13 this year, ranking 6th in total hits allowed with 1,259. They have surrendered 626 runs with a stellar ERA of 3.63, giving up 580 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is an impressive 8.40 (1,350 strikeouts to 529 walks), and they’ve allowed 185 home runs while yielding 3.92 runs per 9 innings (5th in the league).
In 180 save situations, the Braves have recorded 106 holds and experienced 20 blown saves. Their bullpen has entered 69 save opportunities, converting 49 of them. With a 20.9% inherited scoring rate across 172 inherited runners, Atlanta relief pitchers have made 175 appearances in critical situations, ranking 7th in MLB with a 71.0% save rate, utilizing 499 relievers this season.
The Braves have executed 131 double plays, demonstrating a fielding percentage of .989, ranking 5th in MLB. They have achieved 1,348 assists, made 65 errors, and tallied 4,314 putouts for the season. Their defensive efficiency stands at 71.5%, placing them 5th in league standings.
Pitcher Grant Holmes, holding a career record of 16-16, has achieved a 3.66 ERA while allowing 8.1 hits per nine innings. His K/BB ratio is 2.35 after facing 1,416 batters in his MLB career. Holmes has given up 136 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.295 and a FIP of 3.6. In total, he has allowed 302 hits, striking out 308 over 334 innings pitched.
Who will emerge victorious in this crucial MLB matchup against the spread or the moneyline?
Pick: Take Philadelphia (-118)
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