- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026
- Venue: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
- Broadcast: MLB.TV
- Betting Odds: Philadelphia (-128), Miami (+106)
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The Miami Marlins (52-54) are set to clash with the Philadelphia Phillies (57-49) at LoanDepot Park this Tuesday. Current odds place Philadelphia at -128 and Miami at +106, with the over/under set at 8 runs. The starting pitchers expected for this encounter are Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins.
This season, the Philadelphia Phillies are hitting .236 with a slugging percentage of .401, having struck out 943 times and walked 309 times. They’ve registered 445 RBIs and totaled 841 hits, including 145 doubles and 136 home runs. Averaging 4.3 runs per game, they currently rank 18th in the league.
The Phillies have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.39, with their pitching staff boasting a WHIP of 1.30. They’ve allowed 129 home runs and 471 runs total, putting them at 16th in the MLB. With 919 hits given up (approximately 8.8 per 9 innings) and 440 earned runs, their team ERA stands at 4.21, which ranks 17th. The pitching staff has accumulated 1,040 strikeouts and issued 307 walks, resulting in a team FIP of 3.81.
Philadelphia’s bullpen has a save success rate of 74.4%, having faced 82 save situations and converting 29 of them, with 10 opportunities missed. They’ve inherited 111 runners this season, allowing 36.0% to score. They have made 86 appearances in high-leverage situations and used 353 relievers this year, securing 41 holds, placing them 26th in the league.
Totaling 2,821 putouts, the Phillies also recorded 871 assists and 56 errors. With a fielding percentage of .985, they rank 17th, turning 59 double plays. They have achieved a 67.1% conversion rate of balls in play into outs out of 8,463 innings, ranking 29th overall.
Aaron Nola has pitched 1,823 innings in his career, achieving 1,988 strikeouts. With a career record of 112-97, he has a FIP of 3.89 against 7,514 batters faced. His ERA is 3.95, allowing 800 earned runs and a WHIP of 1.167, with 1,643 hits given up (8.1 hits per 9 innings) and 485 walks.
The Miami Marlins have a team batting average of .250 and an on-base percentage of .325. They’ve struck out 869 times (ranking 20th) and accumulated 880 hits, along with 107 home runs and 446 RBIs. The Marlins’ slugging percentage is .404, and they average 4.38 runs per game, placing them 17th in the MLB. They’ve also recorded 176 doubles while earning 353 walks and scoring 464 runs.
The Marlins’ pitching staff has conceded 462 runs this season, posting an ERA of 4.09 (423 earned runs allowed). They’ve surrendered 108 home runs and allow 4.47 runs per 9 innings, ranking 12th in the league. Miami’s team WHIP stands at 1.257, with a FIP of 4.07. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 8.60 (887 strikeouts versus 362 walks), ranking them 6th in total hits allowed with 808 for the season.
With 99 save opportunities, the Marlins have achieved 60 holds and experienced 14 blown saves. Their relievers have entered 37 save situations and secured 23 saves, with a 20.9% inherited scoring rate from 134 inherited base runners. Introducing 101 high-leverage appearances throughout the season, they rank 16th in save success at 62.2%, utilizing a total of 340 relief pitchers.
The Miami Marlins have made 79 double plays this year and maintained a fielding percentage of .982, which ranks them 26th in the league. They’ve recorded 878 assists, 68 errors, and 2,793 putouts. Over 8,379 innings played, the Marlins have a defensive efficiency of 70.6%, placing them 10th overall.
Sandy Alcantara, with a career record of 62-73, holds a 3.69 ERA and concedes 7.9 hits per nine innings. With a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.83, he has faced 5,023 batters throughout his career. He has allowed 500 earned runs, achieved a WHIP of 1.183, and has a FIP of 3.6. Over his MLB career, Alcantara has conceded 1,073 hits with 1,041 strikeouts across 1,218 innings pitched.
Who will prevail in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or on the moneyline?
Prediction: Take Miami (+106) and the under on 8 runs.
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