- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets
- Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
- Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
- Odds: Pittsburgh (+220) New York (-275)
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The New York Mets, finishing with a record of 83-79 last season, are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who ended their previous campaign at 71-91, at Citi Field this Saturday. The current moneyline sees the Pirates at +220 and the Mets at -275, with an over/under line set at 8 runs. The projected starting pitchers are Mitch Keller for the Pirates and David Peterson for the Mets.
Last year, the Pirates recorded a slugging percentage of .350, while racking up 1,422 strikeouts and drawing 530 walks. Their season totals included 561 RBIs and 1,244 base hits, yielding a batting average of .231. The Pirates achieved 245 doubles and smashed 117 home runs, amassing a total of 583 runs, and posting an on-base percentage of .305. As a team, the Pirates scored approximately 3.6 runs per game, ranking them 30th in Major League Baseball.
Pittsburgh’s pitching staff posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.78 and finished with a WHIP of 1.22. On the defensive side, Pirates pitchers allowed 153 home runs and a cumulative total of 645 runs (5th in MLB). They permitted 1,267 hits (8.0 hits per 9 innings) while giving up 598 earned runs. The Pirates concluded the season with an earned run average of 3.76 (ranking 7th in the league) and struck out 1,314 batters. Their staff walked 473 hitters, resulting in a FIP of 3.83 for the season.
The Pirates’ bullpen recorded a save rate of 58.1%, entering 141 save situations and allowing 35.3% of 218 inherited runners to score. Their relief pitchers faced runners on base 143 times and were involved in 161 high-leverage instances. Throughout last season, the Pirates sent 510 relievers to the mound, resulting in 76 holds (24th in MLB) and 36 saves, out of 62 save opportunities, with 26 blown saves.
Defensively, the Pittsburgh Pirates achieved a total of 4,292 putouts, alongside 1,334 assists and 77 errors. Their fielding percentage stood at .986, ranking 12th in the league with 118 double plays. They converted 70.7% of balls in play into outs over 12,876 innings on the field, placing them 9th among professional baseball teams.
Mitch Keller, holding a career record of 42-65, has a FIP of 4.45 and has confronted 3,818 opposing batters throughout his Major League career. He allowed 914 hits (9.4 hits per 9 innings) and issued 299 walks, with an earned run average of 4.51 (440 ERs allowed) and a WHIP of 1.383. Keller has pitched a total of 877 innings, accumulating 837 strikeouts in his MLB career.
On the other side, the New York Mets had a productive year, hitting 224 home runs and driving in 746 RBIs. They achieved 262 doubles, drew 563 walks, and racked up 766 runs. The Mets posted an on-base percentage of .326 and a batting average of .249 over the previous season. Their slugging percentage was .427, led to an average of 4.73 runs per game, placing them 9th in MLB. They struck out 1,325 times (21st in the league) and totaled 1,359 base hits.
The Mets finished with a team WHIP of 1.323 and a FIP of 3.88. They ranked 18th in terms of total hits allowed (1,338) and conceded 715 runs, concluding the season with an ERA of 4.03 (641 earned runs given up). Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stood at 8.70 (1,387 strikeouts against 556 walks), permitting 149 home runs and averaging 4.49 runs per 9 innings (18th in MLB).
During their season, the Mets encountered 170 save situations, recording 101 holds and 28 blown saves. Their bullpen was involved in 68 save opportunities, converting 40 of them. Mets relief pitchers appeared in 185 high-pressure situations, with 176 instances involving runners on base. The inherited runner scoring percentage was 35.0% out of 257 inherited runners, ranking them 23rd in MLB with a save percentage of 58.8%, while sending 541 relievers to the mound throughout last season.
Across their 12,888 innings on the field, New York achieved a defensive efficiency of 68.8% (ranking 25th in professional baseball). The Mets also recorded 119 double plays, with a fielding percentage of .986 (13th in MLB), alongside 1,475 assists, 79 errors, and 4,296 putouts.
Throughout his MLB career, David Peterson has allowed 593 hits and has achieved 614 strikeouts over 622 innings pitched. His earned run average rests at 4.12, having surrendered 285 earned runs while maintaining a WHIP of 1.374 and a FIP of 4.1. With a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.34, he has faced 2,671 batters.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup, whether against the spread or the moneyline?
Prediction: Bet on Pittsburgh (+220)
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