San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Analysis, 5/10/2026 Preview and Choice

Home » San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Analysis, 5/10/2026 Preview and Choice

  • Matchup: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
  • Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
  • Broadcast: NBC
  • Betting Odds: San Antonio Spurs favored by 4.5 points

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The San Antonio Spurs (62-20) are set to face the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) at Target Center in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Sunday. San Antonio is currently leading the series 2-1 and enters this matchup as 4.5-point favorites, with the total points pegged at 218.5 by sportsbooks.

NBA Picks Victor Wembanyama San Antonio Spurs predictions best bet odds

In Game 3, the Spurs secured a victory with a scoreline of 115-108. Fouls were closely monitored, with San Antonio committing 23 fouls while Minnesota recorded 25. The Spurs managed to make 14 of 40 three-pointers, while Minnesota shot 85.7% from the free-throw line, hitting 18 of 21 attempts. The Timberwolves gathered 54 rebounds (15 offensive, 39 defensive) and blocked 7 shots. They also recorded 22 assists and 3 steals. Defensively, San Antonio held Minnesota to a 38.4% field goal shooting percentage, with the Timberwolves hitting 38 of 99 attempts. The Spurs had 26 assists, forced 12 turnovers, and captured 9 steals while achieving 48 rebounds (8 offensive). At the free-throw line, San Antonio converted 25 out of 33 attempts for a shooting percentage of 75.8%, finishing the game with a field goal percentage of 45.9% (39 of 85) and making 12 of 33 attempts from downtown.

Victor Wembanyama was a pivotal player in this matchup, boasting a remarkable shooting percentage of 72.2% and recording 1 assist. He played for 37 minutes, securing 15 rebounds and scoring a total of 39 points on 13 of 18 shooting.

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The Spurs come into this game with a record of 62-20 for the season. They average 119.8 points per game, ranking 3rd in the league, while their overall field goal percentage sits at 48.3%. From beyond the arc, San Antonio excels, hitting 35.9% of shots (1,116 out of 3,108), and their free throw percentage stands at 78.7%. Collectively, the Spurs average 47.0 rebounds per game and have tallied 2,302 assists this season, placing them 9th in the league in passing efficiency. On the turnover front, they give up the ball 13.5 times per game and commit an average of 18.9 fouls.

From a defensive standpoint, the Spurs force an average of 13.0 turnovers per game while committing 20.2 fouls. They rank 12th in the NBA in assists allowed, conceding 2,148 assists throughout the season. San Antonio permits opponents to shoot 45.1% from the field (3,366 out of 7,469) and allows an average of 42.6 rebounds per game while conceding 35.2% from three-point range. They rank 8th in the league for points allowed per game, at 111.5.

In Game 3, Minnesota struggled defensively against the Spurs. The Timberwolves allowed San Antonio to grab 48 total rebounds (8 offensive). They shot 36.4% from three-point range, making 12 of 33 attempts, and were successful with 25 out of 33 free throw attempts (75.8%). The Spurs converted 39 of 85 field goals against Minnesota’s 38 of 99, resulting in a shooting percentage of 38.4% for the Timberwolves. Minnesota shot 14 of 40 from beyond the arc (35.0%) and successfully made 18 free throws for an 85.7% conversion rate. The Spurs committed 23 fouls, giving the Timberwolves 21 chances at the free-throw line. Additionally, Minnesota had 12 turnovers and recorded 3 steals while securing 39 defensive and 15 offensive rebounds for a total of 54 rebounds.

Anthony Edwards emerged as a key player for the Timberwolves during this contest, scoring 32 points in 41 minutes and dishing out 6 assists. He registered a 46.2% shooting rate, converting 12 of 26 attempts, alongside 14 rebounds.

The Timberwolves conclude their season with a 49-33 record. Offensively, they rank 9th in the league, shooting at a rate of 48.1% from the field. They have amassed 9,676 points this season, averaging 118.0 points per game, and secure 44.1 rebounds per game. They dish out assists at a rate of 26.1 times per game (16th in the league) and average 14.8 turnovers per game. Minnesota commits an average of 21.2 fouls and converts 75.2% from the free throw line.

Defensively, Minnesota allows 35.5% on three-point shots (990 of 2,786) and their opponents achieve a free-throw shooting percentage of 78.1%. They permit an average of 26.0 assists and 43.7 rebounds per game, ranking them 10th and 16th respectively in the league. The Timberwolves are 12th in the NBA in points allowed per game, giving up 114.6 points. They force opponents into an average of 15.0 turnovers every game and allow teams to shoot 46.2% from the field (ranking 7th in the NBA).

Who will cover the spread in tonight’s NBA game?

Prediction: Take Minnesota (+4.5)

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Pick: Minnesota (+4.5)
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