- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
- Date: Sunday, July 19, 2026
- Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN
- Betting Odds: Tampa Bay (+102) Boston (-122)
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The Boston Red Sox (currently at 46-48) aim to secure a victory against the Tampa Bay Rays (57-38) at Fenway Park on Sunday. The betting odds indicate the Rays at +102 and the Red Sox at -122. The game’s over/under is set at 8 runs, with expected starting pitchers being Shane McClanahan and Sonny Gray.
The Tampa Bay Rays are scoring an average of 4.5 runs per game, placing them at 15th in Major League Baseball. They have accumulated a total of 425 runs and maintain an on-base percentage (OBP) of .334. As a unit, the Rays have recorded 133 doubles and hit 94 home runs this season, resulting in 404 RBIs and 811 hits, while their batting average stands at .259. Tampa Bay exhibits a slugging percentage of .401 and has struck out 672 times compared to 329 walks.
This season, the Rays have registered a team ERA of 3.80, ranking 9th in the league, and their pitchers have recorded a total of 762 strikeouts. The pitching staff has permitted 118 home runs and 393 runs (9th in MLB). They’ve issued 252 walks, and the team’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) stands at 4.13. So far this year, Tampa Bay has conceded 732 hits at a rate of 7.9 hits per 9 innings, along with 354 earned runs. The K/BB (Strikeout to Walk) ratio for the Rays is 3.02, and they have a WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.17.
With 299 relief pitchers utilized this season, the team has had 113 inherited runners, 26.5% of whom scored. The bullpen has collectively achieved 73 holds, ranking 2nd in the league. Rays pitchers have faced opponents on base 78 times and made 93 high-leverage appearances. They have secured 37 saves out of 50 opportunities, yielding a 74.0% save rate over 123 save situations.
Defensively, the Tampa Bay Rays have recorded 2,517 putouts, 759 assists, and committed 57 errors, resulting in a fielding percentage of .983 (24th in MLB). They have executed 64 double plays and converted 71.8% of balls put in play into outs in their 7,551 innings on the field, placing them 2nd in professional baseball.
Shane McClanahan has pitched for 490 innings, amassing 538 career strikeouts. With a career record of 41-21, McClanahan’s FIP stands at 2.95, having faced 1,981 batters in the majors. His ERA is 2.99, allowing 163 earned runs, and he holds a career WHIP of 1.110. He has surrendered 400 hits (7.3 hits per 9 innings) and issued 144 walks.
The Boston Red Sox possess a slugging percentage of .387 and score an average of 4.10 runs per game, ranking 25th overall in MLB. They have tallied 165 doubles and walked 286 times while contributing 385 runs this season. The team has hit 85 home runs along with 368 RBIs and has struck out 775 times (23rd in the league), accumulating 764 hits. Their OBP stands at .314 with a batting average of .243.
With a team WHIP of 1.223 and a FIP of 3.78, the Red Sox pitching staff ranks 8th in MLB for total hits given up (745). They have conceded 358 runs this season with a team ERA of 3.59 (332 earned runs). The strikeout-to-walk ratio is 8.70 (802 strikeouts vs. 273 walks), surrendering 96 home runs and yielding 3.87 runs per 9 innings (3rd in MLB).
In 88 save opportunities, the Red Sox have managed 55 holds and 9 blown saves. Call-ups to the bullpen have occurred in 31 save situations resulting in 22 successful saves. Boston’s relievers have inherited 112 runners, allowing 32.1% to score. Relievers have been called into 79 high-pressure scenarios and on 78 occasions with players on base, ranking 9th in the league with a 71.0% save rate, using 289 pitchers from the bullpen so far.
Defensively, the Red Sox have completed 62 double plays with a fielding percentage of .988 (7th in MLB). They have 794 assists, 41 errors, and 2,497 putouts this season. Their defensive efficiency in 7,491 innings plays stands at 70.3% (14th in pro baseball).
Sonny Gray (136-103 career record) holds a 3.53 ERA, allowing 7.9 hits per 9 innings and a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.12. Throughout his career, he has faced 8,334 batters, conceding 790 earned runs, maintaining a WHIP of 1.193, and a FIP of 3.5. Gray has allowed a total of 1,756 hits while achieving 2,010 strikeouts in 2,013 innings.
Who will prevail in this MLB contest against the spread or the moneyline?
Recommendation: Bet on Boston (-122)
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