- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox
- Date: Sunday, July 26, 2026
- Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN
- Betting Odds: Toronto (+125) Boston (-145)
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This Sunday, the Toronto Blue Jays (47-57) are set to face off against the Boston Red Sox (53-49) at Fenway Park. The betting line indicates Toronto at +125 and Boston at -145, with an over/under total of 8.5 runs. Kevin Gausman and Ranger Suarez are expected to be the starting pitchers for this contest.
The Toronto Blue Jays are currently averaging 3.9 runs per game, placing them at 30th amongst all MLB teams. They have scored a total of 409 runs and boast an on-base percentage of .303. The team has hit 157 doubles and launched 103 home runs, with a total of 392 runs batted in from 838 hits this season. Their batting average stands at .241, complemented by a slugging percentage of .378. The Blue Jays have also struck out 755 times and drawn 283 walks.
On the pitching side, the Blue Jays hold an ERA of 4.17, ranking 13th in MLB, with 923 strikeouts recorded by the pitching staff. They have allowed 115 home runs and a total of 472 runs (18th overall). The team’s walks stand at 365, and their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is rated at 4.01 this season. Toronto’s pitchers have given up 845 hits, averaging 8.3 hits per nine innings, with a total of 427 earned runs. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.53, while their collective WHIP is 1.31.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen has achieved a save percentage of 70.5% across 112 save situations, earning 31 saves this year but failing in 13 out of 44 opportunities. With 165 inherited runners this season, 29.1% have scored. The bullpen has had 112 instances of entering with runners on base and has participated in 117 high-leverage situations. Overall, Toronto has utilized 383 relievers this season, securing 65 holds, which ranks 6th in the league.
In the field, the Blue Jays have recorded 2,762 putouts, 877 assists, and 69 errors, resulting in a fielding percentage of .981, putting them 28th overall in MLB. They have managed 72 double plays and converted 69.0% of balls in play into outs across 8,286 innings, ranking 25th in the majors.
Kevin Gausman has pitched 2,026 innings throughout his career, accumulating 2,071 strikeouts with an earned run average of 3.86, allowing 868 earned runs. His career WHIP stands at 1.243, having given up 1,949 hits (averaging 8.7 hits per nine innings) and 569 walks. With a career record of 116-122, Gausman holds a FIP of 3.80 against 8,477 major league hitters.
The Boston Red Sox, meanwhile, have a team on-base percentage of .315 and a batting average of .245 for the season. They have struck out 835 times (24th in MLB) and achieved 834 hits. The team has belted 98 homers this season, accompanied by 414 runs batted in. Their slugging percentage is .395 while averaging 4.24 runs per game (20th in MLB). The Red Sox have notched 180 doubles, drawn 304 walks, and scored a total of 432 runs.
Boston’s pitching staff has given up 385 runs this season and holds a collective ERA of 3.56 (yielding 358 earned runs). They have allowed 103 home runs and conceded 3.83 runs per nine innings (3rd in MLB). Their team WHIP is currently at 1.224, with a FIP of 3.78. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is notably strong at 8.60 (865 strikeouts compared to 294 walks). They are ranked 9th for total hits allowed, with 813 this season.
In terms of save capabilities, they are 5th in MLB with a save percentage of 73.7%, utilizing 316 bullpen pitchers this year. Their relievers have seen action in 87 high-leverage situations and 83 times with runners on base. Out of 102 save opportunities, the Red Sox have achieved 62 holds and have suffered 10 blown saves. They have seen their bullpen pitchers enter 38 save chances, securing 28 saves, with a score inherited by 30.0% of the 120 inherited baserunners.
Defensively, the Red Sox are operating at a 70.2% efficiency rate after 8,139 innings (13th in professional baseball). They have completed 69 double plays and carry a fielding percentage of .987 (12th in the league). Boston has achieved 869 assists, committed 46 errors, and registered a total of 2,713 putouts this season.
Ranger Suarez, with a career record of 57-40, maintains a 3.35 ERA, allowing 8.5 hits per nine innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio measures at 3.02, having faced 3,573 hitters during his career, surrendering 318 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.259 and a FIP of 3.3. Throughout his career, Suarez has permitted 808 hits and amassed 802 strikeouts over 853 innings pitched.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or moneyline?
Expert’s Pick: Bet on Boston (-145) and under 8.5 runs
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